Bundesliga prop results and minutes security

PickFinder logo

PickFinder Team•Updated:

Shots Attempted is the most posted prop we track in the Bundesliga, and it went over the main line 43% of 1,167 times. Goalie Saves went over the most, at 55%, and Goals + Assists the least, at 30%.

A line on a player who ends up on the bench rarely clears: Shots Attempted went over 46% for starters and 16% for bench players.

25% of forward and midfielder starts end before minute 70. Those who played 90 cleared 1.5 shots 49% of the time, and those off between minutes 60 and 74 cleared it 40%. Based on 72 Bundesliga matches in the 2026-27 season, Aug 28, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026.

How often Bundesliga props went over the posted line

Each row is a player game with a main line on the board. Prices aren't in these numbers, so this is how often it went over, not whether betting it made money.

Bundesliga over rate by prop market
Shots Attempted11671.2943%0%46%103816%129
Shots On Target6500.6238%0%42%55818%92
Goals + Assists4130.5130%0%32%35414%59
Fantasy Score23111.2651%0%53%2209%11
Pass Attempts22742.1846%0%48%2150%12
Goals2130.5130%0%35%17012%43
Goalie Saves1263.0455%2%55%126-0
Clearances475.8955%2%59%44-3
Assists440.5025%0%24%38-6
Attempted Dribbles382.3837%3%41%34-4
Shots Assisted301.6053%3%57%28-2

Bundesliga over rate at each line

Lines with 15 or more posted games. Whole-number lines can push, which is why the over rate there looks low.

Bundesliga over rate by market and line
Shots Attempted0.554848%0%
Shots Attempted1.537437%0%
Shots Attempted2.518637%0%
Shots Attempted3.54553%0%
Shots On Target0.557638%0%
Shots On Target1.57142%0%
Goalie Saves2.54654%0%
Goalie Saves3.02045%10%
Goalie Saves3.53557%0%

What minutes do to a Bundesliga shots prop

Forwards and midfielders only. 25% of their starts ended before minute 70, and 48% went 85 minutes or more. This describes what happened: some of these players came off because the game was already going badly.

Bundesliga shot results by minutes played
Off the bench50237%190.6916%21%18% of 107
Started, off before 60735%470.9022%19%20% of 59
Started, off 60 to 7420916%671.4940%34%35% of 171
Started, off 75 to 8922617%821.7752%47%49% of 183
Started, played 9033025%901.8449%42%56% of 268

Bundesliga attackers most often off before minute 70

Forwards and midfielders with at least one posted line and 3 or more starts. Includes substitutions, injuries and red cards.

Bundesliga players most often off before minute 70
Yussuf PoulsenHamburger SV, F450%530%100%2.57
Ismael SaibariFC Bayern München, M563%550%100%4.22
Kastriot Imeri1. FC Union Berlin, M375%550%100%1.65
Terem MoffiHamburger SV, F338%570%100%1.05
Ethan NwaneriBV Borussia 09 Dortmund, M457%630%100%2.86
Emmanuel Latte Lath1. FC Union Berlin, F450%610%75%1.47
Robin HackBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach, M450%680%75%1.65
Noah DarvichSV 07 Elversberg, M338%520%67%2.31
Aljoscha Kemlein1. FC Union Berlin, M338%610%67%0.00
Paul Okon-Engstler1. FC Köln, M338%6733%67%0.45
Isac LidbergBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach, F338%6833%67%2.20
Lennart KarlFC Bayern München, M338%6933%67%2.16
Franck HonoratBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach, M338%710%67%0.85
Eren DinkçiSV Werder Bremen, F563%720%60%1.49
Junior AdamuFC Schalke 04, F563%7220%60%2.26
Florian NeuhausBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach, M5100%7220%60%1.50
Adam HlozekTSG 1899 Hoffenheim, F788%680%57%4.19
Livan Burcu1. FC Union Berlin, F450%560%50%0.40
Francis OnyekaSV 07 Elversberg, M450%570%50%1.58
Tim Skarke1. FC Union Berlin, M450%640%50%1.77
Christopher NkunkuRasenBallsport Leipzig, F450%690%50%3.25
Rocco ReitzRasenBallsport Leipzig, M450%690%50%1.30
Jae-Sung Lee1. FSV Mainz 05, M675%7017%50%1.94
Chris FührichVfB Stuttgart 1893, M686%7333%50%0.62
Dzenan PejcinovicVfB Stuttgart 1893, F450%7550%50%3.02

Bundesliga attackers who stay on

Bundesliga players with the safest minutes
Lukasz PorebaSV 07 Elversberg, M8100%90100%0%0.38
Rani Khedira1. FC Union Berlin, M8100%90100%0%0.25
Raphael OnyedikaEintracht Frankfurt, M8100%90100%0%0.25
Philipp SanderBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach, M8100%90100%0%1.38
Santiago CastañedaSC Paderborn 07, M8100%90100%0%1.62
Maximilian EggesteinSC Freiburg, M8100%90100%0%1.62
Marco GrüllSV Werder Bremen, F8100%89100%0%2.14
Joshua KimmichFC Bayern München, M675%90100%0%0.83
Nicolás CapaldoHamburger SV, M675%90100%0%1.00
Marius Bülter1. FC Köln, F563%90100%0%1.80
Lukas PetkovSV 07 Elversberg, F8100%8988%0%1.65
Fabian RiederFC Augsburg, M8100%8988%0%1.77
Leon AvdullahuTSG 1899 Hoffenheim, M8100%8888%0%0.64
Kaishu Sano1. FSV Mainz 05, M8100%8888%0%0.64
Serhou GuirassyBV Borussia 09 Dortmund, F8100%8888%0%3.21
Phillip Tietz1. FSV Mainz 05, F8100%8788%13%3.90
Raphael ObermairSC Paderborn 07, M8100%8788%13%1.17
Nadiem Amiri1. FSV Mainz 05, M8100%8588%13%1.71
Michael OliseFC Bayern München, M788%8986%0%4.90
Soufian El-FaouziFC Schalke 04, M788%8386%14%1.08
Angelo StillerVfB Stuttgart 1893, M788%8286%14%0.63
Jobe BellinghamBV Borussia 09 Dortmund, M675%8783%0%1.21
Kenan KaramanFC Schalke 04, F571%8880%0%1.23
Grischa PrömelVfB Stuttgart 1893, M563%8980%0%2.03
Albert GrønbækHamburger SV, M563%8580%20%0.85

Using prop results and minutes on a prop

  1. Check the player will start

    Off the bench, Bundesliga forwards and midfielders average 0.69 shots and clear 1.5 shots 16% of the time. Started and played 90, it's 1.84 shots and 49%. Confirm the lineup before anything else.

  2. Look up the hook risk

    Yussuf Poulsen (Hamburger SV) came off before minute 70 in 100% of 4 starts, averaging 53 minutes. Lukasz Poreba (SV 07 Elversberg) went 85 or more in 100% of 8 starts. The same line means less for the first player.

  3. Size up the minutes

    A starter off between minutes 60 and 74 clears 1.5 shots 40% of the time, against 49% for a full 90. Some of that gap is game state, since players get pulled when things go badly, so treat it as a description rather than a rule.

  4. Check today's line

    Shots Attempted goes over 43% of the time in the Bundesliga, on an average line of 1.29, and prices aren't in that number. Today's line, every book's price and the hit rate against that line are in PickFinder.

How this is counted

Results use 1,360 player games with a posted main line in 72 Bundesliga matches in the 2026-27 season, Aug 28, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. The line is the most recent main line in PickFinder's archive before the match, stamped onto the player's row, not any one book's closing number, and alternate lines are left out. Over means strictly over the line and a result on the line is a push. Prices aren't included. Fantasy score lines are PrizePicks' and use its scoring. Markets need 25 or more lines, single lines 15. Minutes tables cover forwards and midfielders; early exits include substitutions, injuries and red cards, and players need 3 or more starts and at least one posted line. Start rate counts starts for the player's current team out of its matches since the player first appeared for it. Only matches with full Opta coverage in OpticOdds are counted, so a match with missing stats never reads as zeros.

Prop results and minutes FAQ

Which Bundesliga prop goes over most often?

Goalie Saves, at 55% of 126 posted lines. Lowest is Goals + Assists, at 30% of 413.

Do soccer props go over or under more?

In the Bundesliga, 4 of 11 markets we track went over at least half the time. Prices aren't included, so a market going under more often isn't automatically a good bet.

Which Bundesliga attackers get subbed early the most?

Yussuf Poulsen (Hamburger SV) came off before minute 70 in 100% of 4 starts, followed by Ismael Saibari (FC Bayern München) at 100%.

Which Bundesliga attackers have the safest minutes?

Lukasz Poreba (SV 07 Elversberg) played 85 or more in 100% of 8 starts, with a 100% start rate.

How often do starters come off before 70 minutes?

25% of forward and midfielder starts in the Bundesliga. Those off before minute 60 cleared 1.5 shots 22% of the time.

What is the best tool for researching Soccer picks?

PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For soccer it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The rankings on this page are free.

What is PickFinder?

PickFinder is a sports betting research tool for player props, +EV bets, arbitrage, middles and odds comparison. It covers 30+ leagues across 14 sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, 20 soccer competitions, ATP and WTA tennis, and five esports, and compares 24 sportsbooks and DFS apps, with hit rates, matchups, injuries and line movement on one screen. Every plan includes its Discord, with over 50,000 members, an average of three slips posted a day, 24/7 support and a community free of spam. New members get a 3-day money-back guarantee. PickFinder is not a sportsbook and does not take bets.

More Soccer research

Join over

150,000

PickFinder users

Find the best Soccer picks with PickFinder. This page looks back. To find the best Soccer picks today, you need a research tool like PickFinder: hit rates against today's exact line, matchups, injuries, line movement and every price across 24 books and apps, on one screen.

discord

© 2026 PickFinder

This website is designed solely for research purposes and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling issues, please seek help by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Download on the App Store