Ace matchups
WTA aces per match and aces allowed
PickFinder Team•Updated:
For tennis aces props, read both players. Qinwen Zheng hits the most aces on the WTA tour at 8.2 per match, against an average of 2.7. Sofia Kenin gets aced the most, 8.2 per match and 0.73 per return game, while Marta Kostyuk gets aced the least at 0.06 per return game. Reading both sides predicted the last 12 weeks of aces better than the server alone, with a correlation of 0.61 instead of 0.55.
- WTA aces per match
- 2.7
- Most aces: Qinwen Zheng
- 8.2
- Most allowed per return game: Sofia Kenin
- 0.73
- Fewest allowed per return game: Marta Kostyuk
- 0.06
Tour level only: WTA events, the Grand Slams and the Finals. Challenger and WTA 125 matches have their own view, because mixing them would flatter anyone who plays down a level. Minimum 20 finished matches in the last 52 weeks.
Does the returner really change the ace count?
- Aces allowed: first 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation)
- 0.71
- Aces hit: first 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation)
- 0.86
- Predicting aces from the server alone, last 12 weeks
- 0.55
- Server and returner together, last 12 weeks
- 0.61
Yes. Aces allowed repeat from one half of the year to the next, and reading both sides predicted the last 12 weeks of aces with an average miss of 1.71 aces, against 1.78 from the server alone, over 1,417 player matches. Rates came only from matches before those weeks.
What the returner does to the top WTA servers
Estimated aces over an average 10.8 service games: the server's rate, times the returner's index, times service games. The index is pulled toward 100 first, because only part of it repeats (correlation 0.71). A rough read for sizing an ace line, not a prediction.
Aces hit against aces allowed
WTA aces hit and allowed, sorted by aces per match
Using ace matchups on a prop
Start with the server
Qinwen Zheng hits 0.69 aces per service game. That is a serve index of 275, where 100 is the WTA average of 0.25.
Check who is returning
Sofia Kenin has a return index of 290, the highest here. Marta Kostyuk has 25, the lowest. A line that ignores the returner ignores that gap.
Multiply it out
Over an average 10.8 service games, Qinwen Zheng works out to about 7.5 aces against an average returner, 17.5 against Sofia Kenin and 3.5 against Marta Kostyuk. The returner's index is pulled toward 100 first, because only part of it repeats (correlation 0.71).
Adjust for the court
Then check the court speed index for this week's event. Aces per match change a lot from clay to grass. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Counts finished singles matches, Nov 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026. Aces per match is the player's aces divided by matches. Aces allowed are the opponent's aces in those matches. Per-game rates divide by service games played and by the opponent's service games, so a long match doesn't inflate them. Serve and return indexes compare those rates with the WTA average, set to 100. Retired matches and walkovers are left out. Tour level means WTA events, the Grand Slams and the Finals, qualifying included. Challenger and WTA 125 matches are left out and have their own view, because they would flatter anyone who plays down a level. Team cups are left out too. A player needs 20+ matches to appear. Hard includes indoor hard. The correlations compare the first 26 weeks with the last 26 for players at this level with 80+ games in each, across all surfaces, and the prediction test sets rates only from matches before the last 12 weeks.
Ace matchups FAQ
Who hits the most aces per match on the WTA tour?
Qinwen Zheng at 8.2 per match over 38 matches, or 0.69 per service game. The average is 2.7 per match.
Who gives up the most aces on the WTA tour?
Sofia Kenin allows 8.2 aces per match and 0.73 per return game over 35 matches. That is a return index of 290, where 100 is average.
Who is hardest to ace on the WTA tour?
Marta Kostyuk allows 0.06 aces per return game over 46 matches, a return index of 25.
Are aces allowed a real skill or just luck?
A player's aces allowed in the first 26 weeks correlated 0.71 with the last 26 across 121 players, so it repeats. Aces hit correlated 0.86. Adding the returner moved the average miss on aces from 1.78 to 1.71 over the last 12 weeks.
Why use per-game rates as well as per-match?
Match length moves the count. An average WTA match has 10.8 service games per player, and a player who wins quickly serves fewer. Per-game rates take that out.
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