Ace matchups
ATP grass aces per match and aces allowed
PickFinder Team•Updated:
For tennis aces props, read both players. Alexander Bublik hits the most aces on ATP grass at 18.6 per match, against an average of 8.4. Alexander Bublik gets aced the most, 16 per match and 1 per return game, while Felix Auger-Aliassime gets aced the least at 0.32 per return game. Reading both sides predicted the last 12 weeks of aces better than the server alone, with a correlation of 0.71 instead of 0.63.
- ATP grass aces per match
- 8.4
- Most aces: Alexander Bublik
- 18.6
- Most allowed per return game: Alexander Bublik
- 1.00
- Fewest allowed per return game: Felix Auger-Aliassime
- 0.32
 Alexander BublikWorld No. 26 | 18.6 |
 Taylor FritzWorld No. 12 | 16.9 |
 Jan-Lennard StruffWorld No. 39 | 16.6 |
 Felix Auger-AliassimeWorld No. 13 | 16.4 |
 Alexander ZverevWorld No. 1 | 14.0 |
 Jiri LeheckaWorld No. 15 | 13.9 |
 Ben SheltonWorld No. 4 | 13.6 |
 Martin DammWorld No. 102 | 12.1 |
 Yannick HanfmannWorld No. 58 | 10.9 |
 Zizou BergsWorld No. 40 | 10.8 |
| Alexander BublikWorld No. 26 | 16.0 a match |
 Frances TiafoeWorld No. 8 | 14.1 a match |
| Jan-Lennard StruffWorld No. 39 | 16.5 a match |
| Yannick HanfmannWorld No. 58 | 12.1 a match |
 Roman SafiullinWorld No. 71 | 16.2 a match |
 Sho ShimabukuroWorld No. 118 | 11.1 a match |
 Nuno BorgesWorld No. 49 | 9.4 a match |
| Ben SheltonWorld No. 4 | 12.5 a match |
 Rinky HijikataWorld No. 83 | 10.6 a match |
| Alexander ZverevWorld No. 1 | 11.5 a match |
| Felix Auger-AliassimeWorld No. 13 | 5.1 a match |
 Tommy PaulWorld No. 14 | 4.6 a match |
 Alex De MinaurWorld No. 9 | 4.4 a match |
| Zizou BergsWorld No. 40 | 6.2 a match |
 Daniil MedvedevWorld No. 5 | 5.2 a match |
 Lorenzo SonegoWorld No. 106 | 6.8 a match |
 Ugo HumbertWorld No. 38 | 5.7 a match |
 Arthur FeryWorld No. 32 | 7.6 a match |
 Mattia BellucciWorld No. 66 | 7.1 a match |
 Shintaro MochizukiWorld No. 125 | 7.9 a match |
Tour level only: ATP grass events, the Grand Slams and the Finals. Challenger and WTA 125 matches have their own view, because mixing them would flatter anyone who plays down a level. Minimum 8 finished matches in the last 52 weeks.
Does the returner really change the ace count?
- Aces allowed: first 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation)
- 0.64
- Aces hit: first 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation)
- 0.80
- Predicting aces from the server alone, last 12 weeks
- 0.63
- Server and returner together, last 12 weeks
- 0.71
Yes. Aces allowed repeat from one half of the year to the next, and reading both sides predicted the last 12 weeks of aces with an average miss of 2.86 aces, against 3.09 from the server alone, over 1,520 player matches. Rates came only from matches before those weeks.
What the returner does to the top ATP grass servers
Estimated aces over an average 13.8 service games: the server's rate, times the returner's index, times service games. The index is pulled toward 100 first, because only part of it repeats (correlation 0.64). A rough read for sizing an ace line, not a prediction.
| Alexander BublikWorld No. 26 | 22.5 | 15.9 | 11.0 |
| Taylor FritzWorld No. 12 | 21.9 | 15.5 | 10.7 |
| Jan-Lennard StruffWorld No. 39 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 8.9 |
| Felix Auger-AliassimeWorld No. 13 | 19.7 | 13.9 | 9.7 |
| Alexander ZverevWorld No. 1 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 8.3 |
| Jiri LeheckaWorld No. 15 | 16.8 | 11.9 | 8.2 |
| Ben SheltonWorld No. 4 | 15.8 | 11.2 | 7.7 |
| Martin DammWorld No. 102 | 18.0 | 12.7 | 8.8 |
| Yannick HanfmannWorld No. 58 | 16.6 | 11.7 | 8.1 |
| Zizou BergsWorld No. 40 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 6.2 |
Aces hit against aces allowed
ATP grass aces hit and allowed, sorted by aces per match
Using ace matchups on a prop
Start with the server
Alexander Bublik hits 1.15 aces per service game. That is a serve index of 189, where 100 is the ATP grass average of 0.61.
Check who is returning
Alexander Bublik has a return index of 165, the highest here. Felix Auger-Aliassime has 52, the lowest. A line that ignores the returner ignores that gap.
Multiply it out
Over an average 13.8 service games, Alexander Bublik works out to about 15.9 aces against an average returner, 22.5 against Alexander Bublik and 11.0 against Felix Auger-Aliassime. The returner's index is pulled toward 100 first, because only part of it repeats (correlation 0.64).
Adjust for the court
Then check the court speed index for this week's event. Aces per match change a lot from clay to grass. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Counts finished singles matches, Nov 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026. Aces per match is the player's aces divided by matches. Aces allowed are the opponent's aces in those matches. Per-game rates divide by service games played and by the opponent's service games, so a long match doesn't inflate them. Serve and return indexes compare those rates with the ATP grass average, set to 100. Retired matches and walkovers are left out. Tour level means ATP events, the Grand Slams and the Finals, qualifying included. Challenger and WTA 125 matches are left out and have their own view, because they would flatter anyone who plays down a level. Team cups are left out too. A player needs 8+ matches to appear. Hard includes indoor hard. The correlations compare the first 26 weeks with the last 26 for players at this level with 80+ games in each, across all surfaces, and the prediction test sets rates only from matches before the last 12 weeks.
Ace matchups FAQ
Who hits the most aces per match on ATP grass?
Alexander Bublik at 18.6 per match over 8 matches, or 1.15 per service game. The average is 8.4 per match.
Who gives up the most aces on ATP grass?
Alexander Bublik allows 16 aces per match and 1 per return game over 8 matches. That is a return index of 165, where 100 is average.
Who is hardest to ace on ATP grass?
Felix Auger-Aliassime allows 0.32 aces per return game over 10 matches, a return index of 52.
Are aces allowed a real skill or just luck?
A player's aces allowed in the first 26 weeks correlated 0.64 with the last 26 across 143 players, so it repeats. Aces hit correlated 0.8. Adding the returner moved the average miss on aces from 3.09 to 2.86 over the last 12 weeks.
Why use per-game rates as well as per-match?
Match length moves the count. An average ATP grass match has 13.8 service games per player, and a player who wins quickly serves fewer. Per-game rates take that out.
What is the best tool for researching Tennis picks?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For tennis it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The rankings on this page are free.
What is PickFinder?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool for player props, +EV bets, arbitrage, middles and odds comparison. It covers 30+ leagues across 14 sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, 20 soccer competitions, ATP and WTA tennis, and five esports, and compares 24 sportsbooks and DFS apps, with hit rates, matchups, injuries and line movement on one screen. Every plan includes its Discord, with over 50,000 members, an average of three slips posted a day, 24/7 support and a community free of spam. New members get a 3-day money-back guarantee. PickFinder is not a sportsbook and does not take bets.
