Market beaters
ATP market beaters: win rate against closing odds
PickFinder Team•Updated:
Alex Molcan has beaten the closing tennis odds by the most on the ATP tour over the last 52 weeks: 68.6% wins against 50.7% implied, over 35 matches. Corentin Moutet has lagged them the most, 30% against 46.2%. Most of this looks like noise: 7 of 112 players sit outside the noise band where chance alone would put about 5.1, and a player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.01 with the last 26.
- Players with 30+ priced matches
- 112
- Beyond noise. Chance alone gives about 5.1
- 7
- First 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation of the gap)
- -0.01
- Priced matches counted
- 3,698
ATP win rate against closing odds, biggest gap first
| 1 |  Alex MolcanWorld No. 78 | 68.6% | 50.7% | +17.9 | ±15.5 | Beyond noise | 24-11 | 14-3 | 10-8 |
| 2 |  Arthur GeaWorld No. 44 | 69.7% | 52.1% | +17.6 | ±16.4 | Beyond noise | 23-10 | 14-5 | 9-5 |
| 3 |  Daniel Merida AguilarWorld No. 42 | 64.4% | 50.0% | +14.4 | ±13.6 | Beyond noise | 29-16 | 20-3 | 9-13 |
| 4 |  Frances TiafoeWorld No. 8 | 69.8% | 56.7% | +13.1 | ±11.6 | Beyond noise | 44-19 | 33-7 | 11-12 |
| 5 |  Arthur FeryWorld No. 32 | 60.0% | 48.4% | +11.6 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 21-14 | 13-4 | 8-10 |
| 6 |  Michael ZhengWorld No. 100 | 67.7% | 56.1% | +11.6 | ±16.4 | Within noise | 21-10 | 16-5 | 5-5 |
| 7 |  Marco TrungellitiWorld No. 91 | 50.0% | 39.0% | +11.0 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 19-19 | 5-3 | 14-16 |
| 8 |  Rinky HijikataWorld No. 83 | 54.2% | 43.9% | +10.3 | ±12.0 | Within noise | 32-27 | 17-5 | 15-22 |
| 9 |  Benjamin BonziWorld No. 95 | 58.3% | 48.3% | +10.1 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 21-15 | 12-2 | 9-13 |
| 10 |  Arthur FilsWorld No. 7 | 75.0% | 64.9% | +10.1 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 39-13 | 36-8 | 3-5 |
| 11 |  Jaime FariaWorld No. 57 | 60.0% | 50.1% | +9.9 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 30-20 | 19-7 | 11-13 |
| 12 |  Nikoloz BasilashviliWorld No. 87 | 57.7% | 47.9% | +9.8 | ±13.0 | Within noise | 30-22 | 16-8 | 14-14 |
| 13 |  Valentin VacherotWorld No. 27 | 58.1% | 48.6% | +9.5 | ±14.4 | Within noise | 25-18 | 14-6 | 11-12 |
| 14 |  Quentin HalysWorld No. 46 | 55.0% | 45.9% | +9.1 | ±11.9 | Within noise | 33-27 | 18-8 | 15-19 |
| 15 |  Adrian MannarinoWorld No. 59 | 43.4% | 34.7% | +8.7 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 23-30 | 8-1 | 15-29 |
| 16 |  Alejandro Davidovich FokinaWorld No. 17 | 68.1% | 59.5% | +8.6 | ±13.6 | Within noise | 32-15 | 26-6 | 6-9 |
| 17 |  Ignacio BuseWorld No. 33 | 56.9% | 48.6% | +8.3 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 29-22 | 15-8 | 14-14 |
| 18 |  Rei SakamotoWorld No. 123 | 60.0% | 52.0% | +8.0 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 18-12 | 14-4 | 4-8 |
| 19 |  Rafael JodarWorld No. 10 | 73.1% | 65.2% | +8.0 | ±10.8 | Within noise | 49-18 | 41-11 | 8-7 |
| 20 |  Vilius GaubasWorld No. 147 | 53.3% | 45.5% | +7.9 | ±16.6 | Within noise | 16-14 | 7-3 | 9-11 |
| 21 |  Alexander BlockxWorld No. 28 | 62.5% | 54.7% | +7.8 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 25-15 | 18-9 | 7-6 |
| 22 |  Juan Manuel CerundoloWorld No. 54 | 52.8% | 45.6% | +7.2 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 28-25 | 15-7 | 13-18 |
| 23 |  Titouan DroguetWorld No. 79 | 60.6% | 53.6% | +7.0 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 20-13 | 12-7 | 8-6 |
| 24 |  Botic Van De ZandschulpWorld No. 37 | 53.6% | 46.8% | +6.8 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 30-26 | 20-6 | 10-20 |
| 25 |  Chak Lam Coleman WongWorld No. 85 | 58.5% | 51.7% | +6.8 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 24-17 | 16-8 | 8-9 |
| 26 |  Tomas MachacWorld No. 69 | 56.8% | 50.1% | +6.6 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 21-16 | 16-5 | 5-11 |
| 27 |  Thiago Agustin TiranteWorld No. 53 | 56.0% | 49.7% | +6.3 | ±13.2 | Within noise | 28-22 | 16-8 | 12-14 |
| 28 |  Alexandre MullerWorld No. 146 | 48.4% | 42.5% | +5.9 | ±16.5 | Within noise | 15-16 | 8-3 | 7-13 |
| 29 |  Flavio CobolliWorld No. 6 | 61.4% | 55.8% | +5.6 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 35-22 | 21-16 | 14-6 |
| 30 |  Alex MichelsenWorld No. 35 | 57.7% | 52.3% | +5.4 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 30-22 | 24-5 | 6-17 |
| 31 |  Learner TienWorld No. 19 | 64.8% | 59.7% | +5.2 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 35-19 | 27-10 | 8-9 |
| 32 |  Yannick HanfmannWorld No. 58 | 55.4% | 50.6% | +4.8 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 31-25 | 23-7 | 8-18 |
| 33 |  Lorenzo MusettiWorld No. 24 | 65.9% | 61.2% | +4.8 | ±13.6 | Within noise | 29-15 | 24-7 | 5-8 |
| 34 |  Vit KoprivaWorld No. 62 | 44.9% | 40.5% | +4.3 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 22-27 | 5-8 | 17-19 |
| 35 |  Martin DammWorld No. 102 | 54.3% | 50.3% | +4.1 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 25-21 | 18-7 | 7-14 |
| 36 |  Terence AtmaneWorld No. 73 | 42.9% | 38.8% | +4.0 | ±14.2 | Within noise | 18-24 | 3-6 | 15-18 |
| 37 |  Jan-Lennard StruffWorld No. 39 | 49.0% | 45.1% | +3.9 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 24-25 | 13-8 | 11-17 |
| 38 |  Jakub MensikWorld No. 16 | 67.3% | 63.4% | +3.9 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 35-17 | 31-13 | 4-4 |
| 39 |  Damir DzumhurWorld No. 88 | 42.1% | 38.3% | +3.8 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 16-22 | 5-3 | 11-19 |
| 40 |  Alexander ZverevWorld No. 1 | 78.5% | 74.9% | +3.6 | ±8.5 | Within noise | 62-17 | 61-10 | 1-7 |
| 41 |  Kyrian JacquetWorld No. 80 | 59.0% | 55.7% | +3.3 | ±14.6 | Within noise | 23-16 | 16-6 | 7-10 |
| 42 |  Daniel AltmaierWorld No. 63 | 41.2% | 37.9% | +3.3 | ±12.9 | Within noise | 21-30 | 5-5 | 16-25 |
| 43 |  Jaume MunarWorld No. 65 | 52.9% | 49.7% | +3.2 | ±16.2 | Within noise | 18-16 | 14-3 | 4-13 |
| 44 |  Francisco CerundoloWorld No. 20 | 63.6% | 60.4% | +3.2 | ±11.9 | Within noise | 35-20 | 26-9 | 9-11 |
| 45 |  Christopher O'ConnellWorld No. 117 | 51.6% | 48.6% | +3.0 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 16-15 | 10-4 | 6-11 |
| 46 |  Ben SheltonWorld No. 4 | 68.3% | 65.4% | +2.9 | ±11.3 | Within noise | 41-19 | 34-14 | 7-5 |
| 47 |  Luciano DarderiWorld No. 21 | 56.5% | 53.7% | +2.8 | ±11.7 | Within noise | 35-27 | 24-12 | 11-15 |
| 48 |  Jannik SinnerWorld No. 2 | 94.1% | 91.4% | +2.7 | ±7.5 | Within noise | 48-3 | 48-3 | 0-0 |
| 49 |  Denis ShapovalovWorld No. 51 | 55.0% | 52.3% | +2.7 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 22-18 | 18-7 | 4-11 |
| 50 |  Dino PrizmicWorld No. 92 | 64.9% | 62.2% | +2.7 | ±14.8 | Within noise | 24-13 | 21-7 | 3-6 |
| 51 |  Mattia BellucciWorld No. 66 | 50.0% | 47.4% | +2.6 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 22-22 | 13-4 | 9-18 |
| 52 |  Dalibor SvrcinaWorld No. 119 | 54.3% | 51.7% | +2.6 | ±15.5 | Within noise | 19-16 | 13-6 | 6-10 |
| 53 |  Jiri LeheckaWorld No. 15 | 64.9% | 62.7% | +2.2 | ±11.9 | Within noise | 37-20 | 34-12 | 3-8 |
| 54 |  Cameron NorrieWorld No. 45 | 53.1% | 51.0% | +2.0 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 26-23 | 20-10 | 6-13 |
| 55 |  Brandon NakashimaWorld No. 18 | 60.3% | 58.4% | +2.0 | ±12.2 | Within noise | 35-23 | 27-15 | 8-8 |
| 56 |  Tommy PaulWorld No. 14 | 67.7% | 65.8% | +1.9 | ±10.8 | Within noise | 44-21 | 41-14 | 3-7 |
| 57 |  Adolfo Daniel VallejoWorld No. 56 | 51.2% | 49.3% | +1.9 | ±14.7 | Within noise | 21-20 | 12-7 | 9-13 |
| 58 |  Pablo Carreno BustaWorld No. 74 | 47.4% | 45.5% | +1.8 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 18-20 | 9-5 | 9-15 |
| 59 |  Nuno BorgesWorld No. 49 | 51.8% | 50.1% | +1.7 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 29-27 | 24-7 | 5-20 |
| 60 |  Daniil MedvedevWorld No. 5 | 73.9% | 72.2% | +1.7 | ±9.9 | Within noise | 51-18 | 50-14 | 1-4 |
| 61 |  Carlos AlcarazWorld No. 3 | 87.0% | 85.9% | +1.0 | ±9.6 | Within noise | 40-6 | 40-4 | 0-2 |
| 62 |  Felix Auger-AliassimeWorld No. 13 | 67.3% | 66.8% | +0.5 | ±12.0 | Within noise | 35-17 | 33-12 | 2-5 |
| 63 |  Camilo Ugo CarabelliWorld No. 81 | 40.5% | 40.1% | +0.4 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 15-22 | 7-4 | 8-18 |
| 64 |  James DuckworthWorld No. 70 | 41.0% | 40.7% | +0.3 | ±14.7 | Within noise | 16-23 | 6-2 | 10-21 |
| 65 |  Kamil MajchrzakWorld No. 82 | 46.2% | 46.0% | +0.1 | ±14.8 | Within noise | 18-21 | 8-10 | 10-11 |
| 66 |  Raphael CollignonWorld No. 55 | 54.5% | 54.6% | 0.0 | ±15.9 | Within noise | 18-15 | 12-7 | 6-8 |
| 67 |  Ethan QuinnWorld No. 64 | 48.5% | 48.6% | -0.2 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 16-17 | 9-4 | 7-13 |
| 68 |  Sebastian BaezWorld No. 52 | 46.9% | 47.2% | -0.2 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 23-26 | 13-6 | 10-20 |
| 69 |  Federico CinaWorld No. 136 | 58.1% | 58.5% | -0.4 | ±16.1 | Within noise | 18-13 | 16-3 | 2-10 |
| 70 |  Joao FonsecaWorld No. 41 | 59.4% | 59.8% | -0.4 | ±15.9 | Within noise | 19-13 | 15-8 | 4-5 |
| 71 |  Sho ShimabukuroWorld No. 118 | 44.4% | 45.2% | -0.7 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 16-20 | 8-5 | 8-15 |
| 72 |  Alejandro TabiloWorld No. 30 | 49.1% | 49.9% | -0.8 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 27-28 | 20-8 | 7-20 |
| 73 |  Zachary SvajdaWorld No. 75 | 51.1% | 52.4% | -1.3 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 23-22 | 17-11 | 6-11 |
| 74 |  Shintaro MochizukiWorld No. 125 | 43.8% | 45.2% | -1.5 | ±15.7 | Within noise | 14-18 | 10-4 | 4-14 |
| 75 |  Tallon GriekspoorWorld No. 50 | 46.2% | 47.7% | -1.6 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 18-21 | 11-11 | 7-10 |
| 76 |  Casper RuudWorld No. 23 | 63.6% | 65.3% | -1.6 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 28-16 | 26-9 | 2-7 |
| 77 |  Alex De MinaurWorld No. 9 | 65.1% | 66.8% | -1.7 | ±10.6 | Within noise | 41-22 | 37-16 | 4-6 |
| 78 |  Marin ČilićWorld No. 96 | 45.2% | 46.8% | -1.7 | ±17.1 | Within noise | 14-17 | 9-4 | 5-13 |
| 79 |  Mariano NavoneWorld No. 48 | 46.9% | 48.8% | -1.8 | ±13.2 | Within noise | 23-26 | 15-7 | 8-19 |
| 80 |  Stefanos TsitsipasWorld No. 34 | 58.2% | 60.0% | -1.8 | ±12.1 | Within noise | 32-23 | 25-11 | 7-12 |
| 81 |  Alexander BublikWorld No. 26 | 60.0% | 61.9% | -1.9 | ±13.0 | Within noise | 30-20 | 27-13 | 3-7 |
| 82 |  Roman Andres BurruchagaWorld No. 76 | 43.3% | 45.2% | -1.9 | ±17.2 | Within noise | 13-17 | 8-5 | 5-12 |
| 83 |  Emilio NavaWorld No. 122 | 46.7% | 48.6% | -2.0 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 14-16 | 10-5 | 4-11 |
| 84 |  Fabian MarozsanWorld No. 61 | 50.0% | 52.0% | -2.0 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 23-23 | 16-12 | 7-11 |
| 85 |  Novak DjokovicWorld No. 11 | 70.0% | 72.2% | -2.2 | ±14.1 | Within noise | 21-9 | 19-7 | 2-2 |
| 86 |  Alexander ShevchenkoWorld No. 107 | 40.0% | 42.4% | -2.4 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 16-24 | 10-5 | 6-19 |
| 87 |  Aleksandar KovacevicWorld No. 84 | 37.0% | 39.5% | -2.5 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 20-34 | 8-6 | 12-28 |
| 88 |  Luca Van AsscheWorld No. 47 | 48.6% | 51.3% | -2.7 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 18-19 | 12-7 | 6-12 |
| 89 |  Arthur RinderknechWorld No. 68 | 41.2% | 44.0% | -2.9 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 14-20 | 9-6 | 5-14 |
| 90 |  Tomas Martin EtcheverryWorld No. 31 | 48.1% | 51.1% | -3.0 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 26-28 | 21-7 | 5-21 |
| 91 |  Taylor FritzWorld No. 12 | 67.2% | 70.5% | -3.2 | ±11.3 | Within noise | 39-19 | 37-18 | 2-1 |
| 92 |  Martin LandaluceWorld No. 67 | 44.2% | 47.6% | -3.4 | ±14.4 | Within noise | 19-24 | 8-13 | 11-11 |
| 93 |  Hubert HurkaczWorld No. 29 | 55.8% | 59.3% | -3.5 | ±14.2 | Within noise | 24-19 | 17-12 | 7-7 |
| 94 |  Yibing WuWorld No. 105 | 51.6% | 55.3% | -3.6 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 16-15 | 12-8 | 4-7 |
| 95 |  Zizou BergsWorld No. 40 | 46.5% | 50.2% | -3.7 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 20-23 | 15-8 | 5-15 |
| 96 |  Andrey RublevWorld No. 22 | 60.0% | 64.8% | -4.8 | ±12.1 | Within noise | 33-22 | 33-15 | 0-7 |
| 97 |  Lorenzo SonegoWorld No. 106 | 45.2% | 50.3% | -5.1 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 19-23 | 14-7 | 5-16 |
| 98 |  Ugo HumbertWorld No. 38 | 51.0% | 56.1% | -5.1 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 26-25 | 21-11 | 5-14 |
| 99 |  Aleksandar VukicWorld No. 127 | 39.0% | 44.2% | -5.2 | ±14.4 | Within noise | 16-25 | 10-6 | 6-19 |
| 100 |  Matteo ArnaldiWorld No. 36 | 41.2% | 46.5% | -5.3 | ±16.2 | Within noise | 14-20 | 7-8 | 7-12 |
| 101 |  Hamad MedjedovicWorld No. 77 | 48.5% | 54.3% | -5.8 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 16-17 | 12-8 | 4-9 |
| 102 |  Adam WaltonWorld No. 98 | 41.0% | 47.0% | -6.0 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 16-23 | 9-7 | 7-16 |
| 103 |  Francisco ComesanaWorld No. 135 | 43.3% | 49.6% | -6.3 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 13-17 | 10-5 | 3-12 |
| 104 |  Matteo BerrettiniWorld No. 43 | 52.6% | 59.3% | -6.7 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 20-18 | 15-13 | 5-5 |
| 105 |  Hugo GastonWorld No. 108 | 42.4% | 49.3% | -6.9 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 14-19 | 10-7 | 4-12 |
| 106 |  Jenson BrooksbyWorld No. 94 | 39.5% | 46.4% | -6.9 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 15-23 | 11-8 | 4-15 |
| 107 |  Karen KhachanovWorld No. 25 | 53.1% | 61.5% | -8.4 | ±12.8 | Within noise | 26-23 | 22-15 | 4-8 |
| 108 |  Alexei PopyrinWorld No. 126 | 33.3% | 43.7% | -10.4 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 10-20 | 4-8 | 6-12 |
| 109 |  Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardWorld No. 145 | 38.2% | 49.5% | -11.3 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 13-21 | 9-8 | 4-13 |
| 110 |  Miomir KecmanovicWorld No. 60 | 37.0% | 51.1% | -14.2 | ±13.8 | Beyond noise | 17-29 | 13-16 | 4-13 |
| 111 |  Marcos GironWorld No. 89 | 37.8% | 53.2% | -15.4 | ±13.8 | Beyond noise | 17-28 | 15-12 | 2-16 |
| 112 |  Corentin MoutetWorld No. 110 | 30.0% | 46.2% | -16.2 | ±16.2 | Beyond noise | 9-21 | 5-9 | 4-12 |
How good is the closing price?
Each band is the favorite's no-vig chance at the close. Power de-vig tracks the real win rate. Proportional de-vig, the common shortcut, understates favorites, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater. This page uses power.
Using market beaters on a prop
Read the gap
Alex Molcan won 68.6% against 50.7% implied, a gap of +17.9 points over 35 matches. The noise band for that sample is ±15.5, so a gap has to be that big before it stands out at all.
Split favorites and underdogs
Alex Molcan is 14-3 as a favorite and 10-8 as an underdog. Corentin Moutet is 5-9 and 4-12. It shows where a record came from.
Treat it as context for the price
This explains what has happened, not what comes next. A player's gap correlates -0.01 from one half of the window to the next, across 103 players. Don't read a big gap as a reason to bet.
Start from the close
Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 86.3% of 431 matches against 84.3% implied by the power de-vig. The closing price is hard to beat, so treat it as your starting point. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Counts finished singles matches with a closing moneyline on both players, Nov 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026. 97% of prices are Pinnacle's, and the rest come from another major book. Implied % removes the vig with a power de-vig, because it matches real win rates. The proportional shortcut understates favorites: at 80% to 90% it gives 82.6%, power gives 84.3%, and they actually won 86.3%. Gap is win % minus average implied %. The noise band is two standard deviations of what those prices would produce by chance over that many matches. Beyond noise means the gap is outside it, and with this many players some will be by luck, which is why the page shows the count. Retired matches and walkovers are left out. Tour level means ATP events, the Grand Slams and the Finals, qualifying included. Challenger and WTA 125 matches are left out and have their own view, because they would flatter anyone who plays down a level. Team cups are left out too. A player needs 30+ priced matches.
Market beaters FAQ
Who has beaten the market the most on the ATP tour?
Alex Molcan: 68.6% wins against 50.7% implied over 35 matches, a gap of +17.9 points with a noise band of ±15.5.
Who has been most overrated on the ATP tour?
Corentin Moutet: 30% wins against 46.2% implied over 30 matches, a gap of -16.2 points.
Does beating the market carry over?
Not much. A player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.01 with the last 26 across 103 players. 7 of 112 players sit outside the noise band, and chance alone would put about 5.1 there.
Are closing tennis odds accurate?
Close to it, after a power de-vig. Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 86.3% of 431 matches against 84.3% implied.
Why not use the simple proportional de-vig?
It understates favorites. At 80% to 90% it gives 82.6% against a real win rate of 86.3%, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater.
What is the best tool for researching Tennis picks?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For tennis it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The rankings on this page are free.
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PickFinder is a sports betting research tool for player props, +EV bets, arbitrage, middles and odds comparison. It covers 30+ leagues across 14 sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, 20 soccer competitions, ATP and WTA tennis, and five esports, and compares 24 sportsbooks and DFS apps, with hit rates, matchups, injuries and line movement on one screen. Every plan includes its Discord, with over 50,000 members, an average of three slips posted a day, 24/7 support and a community free of spam. New members get a 3-day money-back guarantee. PickFinder is not a sportsbook and does not take bets.
