Market beaters
ATP Challenger market beaters: win rate against closing odds
PickFinder Team•Updated:
Jan Kumstat has beaten the closing tennis odds by the most on the ATP Challenger tour over the last 52 weeks: 78.8% wins against 55.2% implied, over 33 matches. Gilles Arnaud Bailly has lagged them the most, 33.3% against 52.3%. Most of this looks like noise: 11 of 282 players sit outside the noise band where chance alone would put about 12.8, and a player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.03 with the last 26.
- Players with 30+ priced matches
- 282
- Beyond noise. Chance alone gives about 12.8
- 11
- First 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation of the gap)
- -0.03
- Priced matches counted
- 10,593
ATP Challenger win rate against closing odds, biggest gap first
| 1 |  Jan KumstatWorld No. 194 | 78.8% | 55.2% | +23.6 | ±16.5 | Beyond noise | 26-7 | 18-2 | 8-5 |
| 2 |  Luca Van AsscheWorld No. 47 | 82.4% | 62.6% | +19.8 | ±15.9 | Beyond noise | 28-6 | 27-2 | 1-4 |
| 3 |  Taro DanielWorld No. 178 | 68.2% | 52.1% | +16.1 | ±13.8 | Beyond noise | 30-14 | 16-4 | 14-10 |
| 4 |  Pavel KotovWorld No. 170 | 75.0% | 59.1% | +15.9 | ±15.4 | Beyond noise | 27-9 | 21-5 | 6-4 |
| 5 |  Matej DodigWorld No. 138 | 73.2% | 58.4% | +14.9 | ±12.6 | Beyond noise | 41-15 | 31-7 | 10-8 |
| 6 |  Filippo RomanoWorld No. 240 | 60.0% | 45.1% | +14.9 | ±12.5 | Beyond noise | 33-22 | 14-4 | 19-18 |
| 7 |  Marvin MoellerWorld No. 227 | 65.0% | 51.0% | +14.0 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 26-14 | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| 8 |  Jan ChoinskiWorld No. 113 | 73.5% | 59.6% | +13.9 | ±16.1 | Within noise | 25-9 | 21-4 | 4-5 |
| 9 |  Johan NiklesWorld No. 417 | 60.6% | 46.7% | +13.9 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 20-13 | 12-0 | 8-13 |
| 10 |  Joaquin Aguilar CardozoWorld No. 288 | 68.8% | 56.5% | +12.3 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 22-10 | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| 11 |  Ilia SimakinWorld No. 148 | 70.9% | 58.6% | +12.3 | ±12.2 | Beyond noise | 39-16 | 33-3 | 6-13 |
| 12 |  Andrea GuerrieriWorld No. 166 | 66.1% | 53.8% | +12.3 | ±12.3 | Beyond noise | 39-20 | 28-8 | 11-12 |
| 13 |  Lucas PoullainWorld No. 327 | 65.0% | 52.7% | +12.3 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 26-14 | 19-3 | 7-11 |
| 14 |  Hugo DellienWorld No. 111 | 77.4% | 65.5% | +11.9 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 41-12 | 37-7 | 4-5 |
| 15 |  Alan MagadanWorld No. 496 | 56.3% | 45.0% | +11.3 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 18-14 | 8-1 | 10-13 |
| 16 |  Adolfo Daniel VallejoWorld No. 56 | 83.3% | 72.4% | +11.0 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 25-5 | 23-3 | 2-2 |
| 17 |  Igor MarcondesWorld No. 279 | 64.4% | 53.6% | +10.8 | ±13.4 | Within noise | 29-16 | 17-6 | 12-10 |
| 18 |  Tom GentzschWorld No. 165 | 62.7% | 52.0% | +10.7 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 37-22 | 25-9 | 12-13 |
| 19 |  Ilya IvashkaWorld No. 223 | 73.2% | 62.5% | +10.7 | ±13.6 | Within noise | 30-11 | 27-4 | 3-7 |
| 20 |  Mika BrunoldWorld No. 184 | 68.2% | 57.6% | +10.6 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 30-14 | 22-8 | 8-6 |
| 21 |  Henrique RochaWorld No. 99 | 71.1% | 60.7% | +10.4 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 32-13 | 25-9 | 7-4 |
| 22 |  Arthur GeaWorld No. 44 | 73.3% | 63.0% | +10.4 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 22-8 | 20-5 | 2-3 |
| 23 |  Stefanos SakellaridisWorld No. 129 | 64.0% | 53.7% | +10.3 | ±13.5 | Within noise | 32-18 | 25-9 | 7-9 |
| 24 |  Franco Ribero | 50.0% | 40.3% | +9.7 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 20-20 | 10-1 | 10-19 |
| 25 |  Lorenzo GiustinoWorld No. 272 | 61.1% | 51.7% | +9.5 | ±12.8 | Within noise | 33-21 | 21-9 | 12-12 |
| 26 |  Sebastian OfnerWorld No. 121 | 69.7% | 60.4% | +9.3 | ±16.4 | Within noise | 23-10 | 22-5 | 1-5 |
| 27 |  Federico Iannaccone | 59.4% | 50.1% | +9.3 | ±16.1 | Within noise | 19-13 | 11-4 | 8-9 |
| 28 |  Svyatoslav GulinWorld No. 407 | 62.5% | 53.3% | +9.2 | ±12.9 | Within noise | 30-18 | 21-3 | 9-15 |
| 29 |  Petr Bar BiryukovWorld No. 268 | 56.3% | 47.1% | +9.2 | ±13.2 | Within noise | 27-21 | 14-4 | 13-17 |
| 30 |  Facundo MenaWorld No. 196 | 62.0% | 53.1% | +8.9 | ±13.1 | Within noise | 31-19 | 21-10 | 10-9 |
| 31 |  Andres AndradeWorld No. 229 | 60.3% | 51.6% | +8.8 | ±12.0 | Within noise | 35-23 | 20-8 | 15-15 |
| 32 |  Marat SharipovWorld No. 226 | 69.8% | 60.9% | +8.8 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 30-13 | 25-6 | 5-7 |
| 33 |  Guido Ivan JustoWorld No. 186 | 65.3% | 56.6% | +8.7 | ±10.5 | Within noise | 47-25 | 34-11 | 13-14 |
| 34 |  Gianluca CadenassoWorld No. 215 | 64.1% | 55.4% | +8.7 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 25-14 | 19-6 | 6-8 |
| 35 |  Andrej MartinWorld No. 351 | 51.4% | 43.2% | +8.3 | ±15.7 | Within noise | 18-17 | 8-0 | 10-17 |
| 36 |  Michael MmohWorld No. 149 | 68.3% | 60.1% | +8.2 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 28-13 | 24-4 | 4-9 |
| 37 |  Buvaysar GadamauriWorld No. 266 | 64.2% | 55.9% | +8.2 | ±12.8 | Within noise | 34-19 | 25-4 | 9-15 |
| 38 |  Juan Cruz Martin ManzanoWorld No. 383 | 54.1% | 45.9% | +8.1 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 20-17 | 9-4 | 11-13 |
| 39 |  Nicolas MejiaWorld No. 115 | 65.9% | 58.0% | +7.9 | ±14.2 | Within noise | 27-14 | 17-7 | 10-7 |
| 40 |  Titouan DroguetWorld No. 79 | 73.2% | 65.2% | +7.9 | ±14.2 | Within noise | 30-11 | 28-8 | 2-3 |
| 41 |  Stefano NapolitanoWorld No. 278 | 64.7% | 56.9% | +7.8 | ±15.7 | Within noise | 22-12 | 16-4 | 6-8 |
| 42 |  Alexander Donski | 53.5% | 45.7% | +7.8 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 23-20 | 11-2 | 12-18 |
| 43 |  Matthew William DonaldWorld No. 353 | 57.9% | 50.2% | +7.7 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 22-16 | 15-2 | 7-14 |
| 44 |  Daniel MilavskyWorld No. 307 | 56.8% | 49.3% | +7.5 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 25-19 | 17-5 | 8-14 |
| 45 |  Adam WaltonWorld No. 98 | 70.6% | 63.1% | +7.4 | ±15.5 | Within noise | 24-10 | 21-4 | 3-6 |
| 46 |  Clement ChidekhWorld No. 131 | 64.9% | 57.6% | +7.3 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 37-20 | 29-9 | 8-11 |
| 47 |  Alafia ayeniWorld No. 434 | 52.3% | 45.0% | +7.3 | ±12.9 | Within noise | 23-21 | 13-2 | 10-19 |
| 48 |  Thiago Seyboth WildWorld No. 109 | 77.1% | 69.8% | +7.2 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 37-11 | 36-8 | 1-3 |
| 49 |  Max Alcala GurriWorld No. 130 | 73.9% | 66.8% | +7.1 | ±13.2 | Within noise | 34-12 | 31-8 | 3-4 |
| 50 |  Valerio AboianWorld No. 258 | 51.9% | 44.9% | +7.0 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 27-25 | 13-5 | 14-20 |
| 51 |  Lautaro MidonWorld No. 185 | 61.8% | 55.0% | +6.8 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 34-21 | 24-4 | 10-17 |
| 52 |  Nikolas Sanchez IzquierdoWorld No. 151 | 57.9% | 51.1% | +6.8 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 33-24 | 21-10 | 12-14 |
| 53 |  Raul BrancaccioWorld No. 221 | 47.6% | 40.9% | +6.7 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 20-22 | 6-4 | 14-18 |
| 54 |  Olle WallinWorld No. 416 | 61.8% | 55.0% | +6.7 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 21-13 | 14-5 | 7-8 |
| 55 |  Lloyd HarrisWorld No. 103 | 74.3% | 67.6% | +6.7 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 26-9 | 26-6 | 0-3 |
| 56 |  Juan Manuel La sernaWorld No. 254 | 61.0% | 54.4% | +6.6 | ±11.6 | Within noise | 36-23 | 23-8 | 13-15 |
| 57 |  Enrico Dalla ValleWorld No. 309 | 65.8% | 59.2% | +6.6 | ±10.2 | Within noise | 48-25 | 35-8 | 13-17 |
| 58 |  Aidan MayoWorld No. 285 | 58.3% | 51.7% | +6.6 | ±13.4 | Within noise | 28-20 | 14-8 | 14-12 |
| 59 |  Rio NoguchiWorld No. 219 | 58.6% | 52.4% | +6.3 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 34-24 | 20-13 | 14-11 |
| 60 |  Alejo Sanchez QuilezWorld No. 324 | 57.7% | 51.4% | +6.3 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 30-22 | 16-8 | 14-14 |
| 61 |  Thiago Cigarran | 51.5% | 45.3% | +6.3 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 17-16 | 11-2 | 6-14 |
| 62 |  David Jorda SanchisWorld No. 199 | 54.9% | 48.7% | +6.2 | ±12.9 | Within noise | 28-23 | 15-9 | 13-14 |
| 63 |  Andre IlaganWorld No. 200 | 55.4% | 49.1% | +6.2 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 31-25 | 20-5 | 11-20 |
| 64 |  Yunchaokete BuWorld No. 93 | 73.5% | 67.3% | +6.2 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 25-9 | 20-9 | 5-0 |
| 65 |  Felix BalshawWorld No. 180 | 61.9% | 55.9% | +6.0 | ±14.4 | Within noise | 26-16 | 19-9 | 7-7 |
| 66 |  Felix GillWorld No. 228 | 61.4% | 55.4% | +6.0 | ±13.8 | Within noise | 27-17 | 19-7 | 8-10 |
| 67 |  Gerard Campana LeeWorld No. 445 | 64.4% | 58.5% | +5.9 | ±13.0 | Within noise | 29-16 | 24-5 | 5-11 |
| 68 |  Mikhail KukushkinWorld No. 345 | 61.1% | 55.3% | +5.8 | ±15.4 | Within noise | 22-14 | 15-5 | 7-9 |
| 69 |  Darwin BlanchWorld No. 139 | 63.0% | 57.3% | +5.7 | ±12.8 | Within noise | 34-20 | 23-10 | 11-10 |
| 70 |  Evan ZhuWorld No. 467 | 55.0% | 49.3% | +5.7 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 22-18 | 16-3 | 6-15 |
| 71 |  Lukas NeumayerWorld No. 155 | 67.9% | 62.4% | +5.6 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 36-17 | 32-8 | 4-9 |
| 72 |  Francesco PassaroWorld No. 153 | 66.7% | 61.0% | +5.6 | ±16.9 | Within noise | 20-10 | 14-7 | 6-3 |
| 73 |  Zsombor PirosWorld No. 101 | 73.6% | 68.0% | +5.6 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 39-14 | 38-12 | 1-2 |
| 74 |  Kasidit SamrejWorld No. 409 | 50.0% | 44.5% | +5.5 | ±15.9 | Within noise | 17-17 | 8-2 | 9-15 |
| 75 |  Petr NesterovWorld No. 286 | 60.5% | 54.9% | +5.5 | ±14.2 | Within noise | 26-17 | 19-8 | 7-9 |
| 76 |  Rei SakamotoWorld No. 123 | 67.4% | 62.1% | +5.4 | ±13.5 | Within noise | 29-14 | 25-8 | 4-6 |
| 77 |  Facundo Diaz AcostaWorld No. 72 | 78.3% | 73.1% | +5.3 | ±10.9 | Within noise | 47-13 | 46-10 | 1-3 |
| 78 |  Liam DraxlWorld No. 168 | 66.7% | 61.4% | +5.3 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 28-14 | 24-6 | 4-8 |
| 79 |  Franco RoncadelliWorld No. 261 | 56.6% | 51.5% | +5.1 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 30-23 | 16-8 | 14-15 |
| 80 |  Hayato MatsuokaWorld No. 247 | 56.5% | 51.6% | +5.0 | ±11.0 | Within noise | 39-30 | 32-9 | 7-21 |
| 81 |  Maximo Zeitune | 57.6% | 52.6% | +5.0 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 19-14 | 14-2 | 5-12 |
| 82 |  Toby SamuelWorld No. 97 | 72.9% | 67.9% | +5.0 | ±13.0 | Within noise | 35-13 | 32-9 | 3-4 |
| 83 |  Pol Martin TiffonWorld No. 210 | 58.8% | 53.8% | +5.0 | ±12.9 | Within noise | 30-21 | 19-9 | 11-12 |
| 84 |  Vitaliy SachkoWorld No. 175 | 56.3% | 51.3% | +5.0 | ±16.9 | Within noise | 18-14 | 13-6 | 5-8 |
| 85 |  Genaro Alberto OlivieriWorld No. 257 | 48.9% | 44.3% | +4.6 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 23-24 | 9-7 | 14-17 |
| 86 |  Daniel MasurWorld No. 365 | 59.0% | 54.4% | +4.5 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 23-16 | 16-7 | 7-9 |
| 87 |  Jacob FearnleyWorld No. 90 | 67.6% | 63.1% | +4.5 | ±15.9 | Within noise | 23-11 | 21-5 | 2-6 |
| 88 |  Cezar CretuWorld No. 269 | 55.6% | 51.2% | +4.4 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 25-20 | 16-5 | 9-15 |
| 89 |  Remy BertolaWorld No. 222 | 47.9% | 43.6% | +4.3 | ±13.5 | Within noise | 23-25 | 10-6 | 13-19 |
| 90 |  Niels ViskerWorld No. 418 | 56.8% | 52.5% | +4.3 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 25-19 | 17-5 | 8-14 |
| 91 |  Norbert GombosWorld No. 372 | 58.2% | 54.0% | +4.2 | ±12.1 | Within noise | 32-23 | 22-8 | 10-15 |
| 92 |  Joao Lucas Da SilvaWorld No. 177 | 55.8% | 51.6% | +4.2 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 29-23 | 18-9 | 11-14 |
| 93 |  Gustavo HeideWorld No. 112 | 74.1% | 69.9% | +4.2 | ±11.2 | Within noise | 43-15 | 41-9 | 2-6 |
| 94 |  Joel Josef SchwaerzlerWorld No. 172 | 56.9% | 52.8% | +4.1 | ±13.4 | Within noise | 29-22 | 19-13 | 10-9 |
| 95 |  Samuele PieriWorld No. 315 | 51.2% | 47.0% | +4.1 | ±13.8 | Within noise | 22-21 | 10-3 | 12-18 |
| 96 |  Laslo DjereWorld No. 137 | 67.6% | 63.5% | +4.0 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 25-12 | 19-10 | 6-2 |
| 97 |  Alexis GalarneauWorld No. 195 | 58.7% | 54.7% | +4.0 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 27-19 | 21-9 | 6-10 |
| 98 |  Keegan SmithWorld No. 192 | 54.8% | 51.0% | +3.9 | ±11.7 | Within noise | 34-28 | 19-11 | 15-17 |
| 99 |  Stefano TravagliaWorld No. 159 | 59.6% | 55.7% | +3.9 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 28-19 | 22-8 | 6-11 |
| 100 |  Thiago MonteiroWorld No. 233 | 64.4% | 60.5% | +3.9 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 29-16 | 21-9 | 8-7 |
| 101 |  Dominik PalanWorld No. 498 | 40.6% | 41.7% | -1.0 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 13-19 | 7-3 | 6-16 |
| 102 |  Daniel Elahi GalanWorld No. 355 | 53.5% | 54.6% | -1.1 | ±14.1 | Within noise | 23-20 | 13-8 | 10-12 |
| 103 |  Luca PotenzaWorld No. 485 | 43.3% | 44.5% | -1.2 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 13-17 | 7-2 | 6-15 |
| 104 |  Nicolas KickerWorld No. 340 | 52.3% | 53.6% | -1.3 | ±13.5 | Within noise | 23-21 | 15-7 | 8-14 |
| 105 |  Rodrigo Pacheco MendezWorld No. 255 | 55.6% | 56.9% | -1.3 | ±13.8 | Within noise | 25-20 | 20-5 | 5-15 |
| 106 |  Juan Carlos Prado AngeloWorld No. 193 | 54.2% | 55.7% | -1.5 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 26-22 | 20-11 | 6-11 |
| 107 |  Otto VirtanenWorld No. 116 | 65.8% | 67.3% | -1.5 | ±14.8 | Within noise | 25-13 | 23-12 | 2-1 |
| 108 |  Mark LajalWorld No. 167 | 62.7% | 64.3% | -1.5 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 32-19 | 30-12 | 2-7 |
| 109 |  Ivan Marrero CurbeloWorld No. 386 | 52.8% | 54.4% | -1.6 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 19-17 | 17-3 | 2-14 |
| 110 |  Michael GeertsWorld No. 356 | 48.6% | 50.3% | -1.7 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 17-18 | 15-6 | 2-12 |
| 111 |  Jay ClarkeWorld No. 241 | 55.3% | 57.1% | -1.8 | ±13.6 | Within noise | 26-21 | 18-13 | 8-8 |
| 112 |  Mitchell KruegerWorld No. 361 | 47.2% | 49.1% | -1.9 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 17-19 | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| 113 |  Jaime FariaWorld No. 57 | 63.3% | 65.2% | -1.9 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 19-11 | 18-7 | 1-4 |
| 114 |  Bruno Fernandez | 39.4% | 41.4% | -2.0 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 13-20 | 10-4 | 3-16 |
| 115 |  Fajing SunWorld No. 287 | 50.0% | 52.0% | -2.0 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 28-28 | 19-7 | 9-21 |
| 116 |  Moez EcharguiWorld No. 349 | 40.0% | 42.0% | -2.0 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 14-21 | 7-3 | 7-18 |
| 117 |  August HolmgrenWorld No. 267 | 50.0% | 52.1% | -2.1 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 26-26 | 17-8 | 9-18 |
| 118 |  Hiroki MoriyaWorld No. 455 | 47.2% | 49.4% | -2.2 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 25-28 | 18-7 | 7-21 |
| 119 |  Alex HernandezWorld No. 469 | 35.5% | 37.7% | -2.2 | ±15.5 | Within noise | 11-20 | 4-5 | 7-15 |
| 120 |  Maximus JonesWorld No. 493 | 41.9% | 44.4% | -2.5 | ±17.2 | Within noise | 13-18 | 4-6 | 9-12 |
| 121 |  Matteo MartineauWorld No. 244 | 47.4% | 50.0% | -2.6 | ±12.5 | Within noise | 27-30 | 14-9 | 13-21 |
| 122 |  Alex MartinezWorld No. 400 | 54.8% | 57.4% | -2.6 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 17-14 | 12-6 | 5-8 |
| 123 |  Jake DelaneyWorld No. 350 | 37.1% | 39.9% | -2.8 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 13-22 | 8-2 | 5-20 |
| 124 |  Manas DhamneWorld No. 391 | 48.8% | 51.6% | -2.8 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 21-22 | 11-10 | 10-12 |
| 125 |  Maks KasnikowskiWorld No. 211 | 60.3% | 63.4% | -3.1 | ±11.4 | Within noise | 38-25 | 34-13 | 4-12 |
| 126 |  Mert AlkayaWorld No. 321 | 50.0% | 53.1% | -3.1 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 17-17 | 15-4 | 2-13 |
| 127 |  Colton SmithWorld No. 218 | 55.9% | 59.0% | -3.2 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 19-15 | 16-10 | 3-5 |
| 128 |  Viktor DurasovicWorld No. 482 | 41.7% | 45.0% | -3.3 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 15-21 | 7-5 | 8-16 |
| 129 |  Andrew FentyWorld No. 489 | 46.9% | 50.4% | -3.5 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 15-17 | 14-5 | 1-12 |
| 130 |  Alejandro Moro CanasWorld No. 238 | 53.4% | 57.0% | -3.5 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 31-27 | 23-15 | 8-12 |
| 131 |  Michele RibecaiWorld No. 284 | 51.6% | 55.2% | -3.6 | ±11.4 | Within noise | 33-31 | 23-16 | 10-15 |
| 132 |  Dali BlanchWorld No. 323 | 52.7% | 56.4% | -3.6 | ±12.1 | Within noise | 29-26 | 19-13 | 10-13 |
| 133 |  Daniel Dutra da SilvaWorld No. 493 | 40.0% | 43.7% | -3.7 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 14-21 | 6-5 | 8-16 |
| 134 |  Billy HarrisWorld No. 232 | 42.4% | 46.1% | -3.7 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 14-19 | 5-8 | 9-11 |
| 135 |  Ugo BlanchetWorld No. 334 | 50.0% | 53.8% | -3.8 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 19-19 | 16-7 | 3-12 |
| 136 |  Felipe Meligeni AlvesWorld No. 348 | 55.9% | 59.7% | -3.8 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 19-15 | 16-7 | 3-8 |
| 137 |  Hernan CasanovaWorld No. 438 | 56.3% | 60.1% | -3.9 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 18-14 | 14-6 | 4-8 |
| 138 |  Philip HenningWorld No. 236 | 52.9% | 56.8% | -3.9 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 18-16 | 14-6 | 4-10 |
| 139 |  Henri SquireWorld No. 312 | 51.0% | 54.9% | -3.9 | ±13.5 | Within noise | 25-24 | 16-12 | 9-12 |
| 140 |  Dane SweenyWorld No. 114 | 53.8% | 57.9% | -4.0 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 21-18 | 15-10 | 6-8 |
| 141 |  Francesco MaestrelliWorld No. 176 | 48.5% | 52.5% | -4.0 | ±16.6 | Within noise | 16-17 | 13-6 | 3-11 |
| 142 |  Chak Lam Coleman WongWorld No. 85 | 63.4% | 67.5% | -4.1 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 26-15 | 24-11 | 2-4 |
| 143 |  Daniel MichalskiWorld No. 305 | 44.4% | 48.8% | -4.3 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 16-20 | 11-3 | 5-17 |
| 144 |  Roberto Carballes BaenaWorld No. 263 | 53.3% | 57.7% | -4.4 | ±16.6 | Within noise | 16-14 | 13-7 | 3-7 |
| 145 |  Zdenek KolarWorld No. 206 | 50.0% | 54.6% | -4.6 | ±12.3 | Within noise | 30-30 | 18-17 | 12-13 |
| 146 |  Carlo Alberto CaniatoWorld No. 306 | 52.3% | 56.8% | -4.6 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 23-21 | 18-9 | 5-12 |
| 147 |  Tiago PereiraWorld No. 318 | 36.8% | 41.6% | -4.7 | ±14.6 | Within noise | 14-24 | 6-2 | 8-22 |
| 148 |  Max Hans RehbergWorld No. 248 | 58.7% | 63.4% | -4.7 | ±13.4 | Within noise | 27-19 | 23-13 | 4-6 |
| 149 |  Maxime Janvier | 42.5% | 47.3% | -4.8 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 17-23 | 8-8 | 9-15 |
| 150 |  Edward WinterWorld No. 404 | 48.5% | 53.2% | -4.8 | ±16.1 | Within noise | 16-17 | 10-6 | 6-11 |
| 151 |  Alex RybakovWorld No. 499 | 43.3% | 48.4% | -5.0 | ±17.4 | Within noise | 13-17 | 8-4 | 5-13 |
| 152 |  Franco AgamenoneWorld No. 364 | 44.9% | 50.0% | -5.1 | ±13.4 | Within noise | 22-27 | 14-7 | 8-20 |
| 153 |  Abdullah ShelbayhWorld No. 311 | 46.9% | 52.3% | -5.4 | ±12.8 | Within noise | 23-26 | 20-5 | 3-21 |
| 154 |  Denis YevseyevWorld No. 474 | 44.0% | 49.5% | -5.5 | ±12.6 | Within noise | 22-28 | 18-6 | 4-22 |
| 155 |  Dimitar KuzmanovWorld No. 363 | 53.2% | 58.8% | -5.6 | ±11.4 | Within noise | 33-29 | 27-11 | 6-18 |
| 156 |  Tung-lin WuWorld No. 376 | 59.5% | 65.3% | -5.8 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 25-17 | 23-9 | 2-8 |
| 157 |  Beibit ZhukayevWorld No. 495 | 50.0% | 55.8% | -5.8 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 17-17 | 14-9 | 3-8 |
| 158 |  Stefan KozlovWorld No. 271 | 51.0% | 57.0% | -6.0 | ±12.7 | Within noise | 26-25 | 21-11 | 5-14 |
| 159 |  Hynek BartonWorld No. 277 | 56.7% | 62.8% | -6.1 | ±11.0 | Within noise | 38-29 | 34-18 | 4-11 |
| 160 |  Jurij RodionovWorld No. 142 | 57.9% | 64.2% | -6.3 | ±14.7 | Within noise | 22-16 | 17-10 | 5-6 |
| 161 |  Tristan BoyerWorld No. 207 | 45.7% | 52.0% | -6.3 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 16-19 | 9-9 | 7-10 |
| 162 |  Sandro KoppWorld No. 294 | 45.7% | 51.9% | -6.3 | ±14.0 | Within noise | 21-25 | 12-14 | 9-11 |
| 163 |  Wilson Leite | 46.7% | 53.1% | -6.4 | ±14.6 | Within noise | 14-16 | 13-3 | 1-13 |
| 164 |  Lucio RattiWorld No. 371 | 47.1% | 53.5% | -6.4 | ±14.3 | Within noise | 16-18 | 12-5 | 4-13 |
| 165 |  Federico ArnaboldiWorld No. 473 | 43.9% | 50.3% | -6.4 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 18-23 | 11-10 | 7-13 |
| 166 |  Yu Hsiou HsuWorld No. 304 | 42.1% | 48.6% | -6.5 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 16-22 | 9-10 | 7-12 |
| 167 |  James McCabeWorld No. 256 | 48.6% | 55.3% | -6.6 | ±15.0 | Within noise | 18-19 | 11-8 | 7-11 |
| 168 |  James Kent TrotterWorld No. 464 | 52.4% | 59.3% | -6.9 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 22-20 | 16-11 | 6-9 |
| 169 |  Gauthier OnclinWorld No. 173 | 51.4% | 58.4% | -7.1 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 19-18 | 18-5 | 1-13 |
| 170 |  Milos KarolWorld No. 487 | 45.2% | 52.5% | -7.3 | ±16.6 | Within noise | 14-17 | 9-8 | 5-9 |
| 171 |  Blaise BicknellWorld No. 436 | 40.0% | 47.4% | -7.4 | ±16.4 | Within noise | 12-18 | 7-5 | 5-13 |
| 172 |  Federico CinaWorld No. 136 | 55.6% | 63.0% | -7.5 | ±15.4 | Within noise | 20-16 | 18-13 | 2-3 |
| 173 |  Juan Bautista TorresWorld No. 314 | 51.9% | 59.4% | -7.6 | ±12.2 | Within noise | 28-26 | 22-13 | 6-13 |
| 174 |  Timofey SkatovWorld No. 201 | 46.7% | 54.4% | -7.7 | ±13.9 | Within noise | 21-24 | 13-14 | 8-10 |
| 175 |  Lorenzo CarboniWorld No. 482 | 42.4% | 50.1% | -7.7 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 14-19 | 10-5 | 4-14 |
| 176 |  Duje AjdukovicWorld No. 381 | 43.9% | 51.8% | -7.9 | ±14.6 | Within noise | 18-23 | 15-7 | 3-16 |
| 177 |  Kaichi UchidaWorld No. 401 | 33.3% | 41.2% | -7.9 | ±14.4 | Within noise | 13-26 | 9-5 | 4-21 |
| 178 |  Edas ButvilasWorld No. 209 | 52.7% | 60.6% | -7.9 | ±12.4 | Within noise | 29-26 | 24-18 | 5-8 |
| 179 |  Yusuke Takahashi | 40.0% | 48.6% | -8.6 | ±16.4 | Within noise | 12-18 | 6-5 | 6-13 |
| 180 |  Yi ZhouWorld No. 281 | 55.3% | 64.3% | -9.1 | ±14.1 | Within noise | 21-17 | 20-10 | 1-7 |
| 181 |  Nicolai Budkov KjaerWorld No. 182 | 51.4% | 60.8% | -9.3 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 18-17 | 15-11 | 3-6 |
| 182 |  Philip SekulicWorld No. 343 | 41.7% | 51.2% | -9.5 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 15-21 | 11-8 | 4-13 |
| 183 |  Dan AddedWorld No. 426 | 36.7% | 46.2% | -9.5 | ±16.9 | Within noise | 11-19 | 7-5 | 4-14 |
| 184 |  Juan EstevezWorld No. 357 | 44.1% | 53.6% | -9.5 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 15-19 | 9-7 | 6-12 |
| 185 |  Rudolf MollekerWorld No. 458 | 47.2% | 56.8% | -9.5 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 17-19 | 13-9 | 4-10 |
| 186 |  Thomas FaurelWorld No. 298 | 39.4% | 48.9% | -9.5 | ±15.9 | Within noise | 13-20 | 7-8 | 6-12 |
| 187 |  Radu AlbotWorld No. 468 | 45.9% | 55.6% | -9.6 | ±15.2 | Within noise | 17-20 | 14-10 | 3-10 |
| 188 |  Quinn VandecasteeleWorld No. 472 | 45.7% | 55.4% | -9.8 | ±13.3 | Within noise | 21-25 | 16-14 | 5-11 |
| 189 |  Murkel DellienWorld No. 450 | 40.0% | 50.2% | -10.2 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 14-21 | 9-5 | 5-16 |
| 190 |  Tomas Barrios VeraWorld No. 154 | 50.0% | 61.5% | -11.5 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 18-18 | 18-9 | 0-9 |
| 191 |  Patrick ZahrajWorld No. 416 | 31.4% | 42.9% | -11.5 | ±15.6 | Within noise | 11-24 | 8-5 | 3-19 |
| 192 |  Geoffrey BlancaneauxWorld No. 443 | 34.4% | 46.5% | -12.1 | ±16.7 | Within noise | 11-21 | 5-8 | 6-13 |
| 193 |  Vilius GaubasWorld No. 147 | 46.7% | 59.0% | -12.3 | ±17.2 | Within noise | 14-16 | 10-12 | 4-4 |
| 194 |  Juan Pablo FicovichWorld No. 370 | 38.2% | 51.4% | -13.2 | ±15.8 | Within noise | 13-21 | 8-6 | 5-15 |
| 195 |  Marko TopoWorld No. 344 | 40.6% | 54.3% | -13.7 | ±16.6 | Within noise | 13-19 | 8-11 | 5-8 |
| 196 |  Alastair GrayWorld No. 270 | 50.0% | 64.3% | -14.3 | ±14.5 | Within noise | 19-19 | 17-13 | 2-6 |
| 197 |  Lorenzo Joaquin RodriguezWorld No. 463 | 40.6% | 55.9% | -15.2 | ±15.4 | Within noise | 13-19 | 11-4 | 2-15 |
| 198 |  Alvaro Guillen MezaWorld No. 392 | 40.5% | 55.9% | -15.4 | ±15.3 | Beyond noise | 15-22 | 12-11 | 3-11 |
| 199 |  Andres MartinWorld No. 359 | 40.9% | 57.8% | -16.9 | ±13.6 | Beyond noise | 18-26 | 14-15 | 4-11 |
| 200 |  Gilles Arnaud BaillyWorld No. 484 | 33.3% | 52.3% | -19.0 | ±17.4 | Beyond noise | 10-20 | 7-7 | 3-13 |
How good is the closing price?
Each band is the favorite's no-vig chance at the close. Power de-vig tracks the real win rate. Proportional de-vig, the common shortcut, understates favorites, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater. This page uses power.
Using market beaters on a prop
Read the gap
Jan Kumstat won 78.8% against 55.2% implied, a gap of +23.6 points over 33 matches. The noise band for that sample is ±16.5, so a gap has to be that big before it stands out at all.
Split favorites and underdogs
Jan Kumstat is 18-2 as a favorite and 8-5 as an underdog. Gilles Arnaud Bailly is 7-7 and 3-13. It shows where a record came from.
Treat it as context for the price
This explains what has happened, not what comes next. A player's gap correlates -0.03 from one half of the window to the next, across 232 players. Don't read a big gap as a reason to bet.
Start from the close
Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 85.4% of 1328 matches against 84.4% implied by the power de-vig. The closing price is hard to beat, so treat it as your starting point. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Counts finished singles matches with a closing moneyline on both players, Nov 2, 2025 to Nov 2, 2026. 93% of prices are Pinnacle's, and the rest come from another major book. Implied % removes the vig with a power de-vig, because it matches real win rates. The proportional shortcut understates favorites: at 80% to 90% it gives 82.2%, power gives 84.4%, and they actually won 85.4%. Gap is win % minus average implied %. The noise band is two standard deviations of what those prices would produce by chance over that many matches. Beyond noise means the gap is outside it, and with this many players some will be by luck, which is why the page shows the count. Retired matches and walkovers are left out. Only ATP Challenger matches count here, qualifying included. Main tour matches have their own view. A player needs 30+ priced matches.
Market beaters FAQ
Who has beaten the market the most on the ATP Challenger tour?
Jan Kumstat: 78.8% wins against 55.2% implied over 33 matches, a gap of +23.6 points with a noise band of ±16.5.
Who has been most overrated on the ATP Challenger tour?
Gilles Arnaud Bailly: 33.3% wins against 52.3% implied over 30 matches, a gap of -19.0 points.
Does beating the market carry over?
Not much. A player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.03 with the last 26 across 232 players. 11 of 282 players sit outside the noise band, and chance alone would put about 12.8 there.
Are closing tennis odds accurate?
Close to it, after a power de-vig. Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 85.4% of 1328 matches against 84.4% implied.
Why not use the simple proportional de-vig?
It understates favorites. At 80% to 90% it gives 82.2% against a real win rate of 85.4%, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater.
What is the best tool for researching Tennis picks?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For tennis it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The rankings on this page are free.
What is PickFinder?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool for player props, +EV bets, arbitrage, middles and odds comparison. It covers 30+ leagues across 14 sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, 20 soccer competitions, ATP and WTA tennis, and five esports, and compares 24 sportsbooks and DFS apps, with hit rates, matchups, injuries and line movement on one screen. Every plan includes its Discord, with over 50,000 members, an average of three slips posted a day, 24/7 support and a community free of spam. New members get a 3-day money-back guarantee. PickFinder is not a sportsbook and does not take bets.
