Prop line record
Tennis break points won props: over and under record against the line
PickFinder Team•Updated:
Tennis break points won props on PrizePicks, Underdog and Dabble have gone over 49% of the time since May 12, 2026, across 3,556 lines, with an average line of 3.28 and an average result of 3.32. Zizou Bergs went over most often, on 11 of 15 lines, and Ann Li least often, on 5 of 20. 4 players sit outside the noise band, about what chance alone would produce (3.8).
- Break Points Won overs, 3,556 lines
- 49.0%
- Average line / average result
- 3.3 / 3.3
- Players with 15+ lines
- 84
- Beyond noise. Chance alone gives about 3.8
- 4
Which tennis lines lean one way
Carries over: how well a player's over rate in the first half of the window matches the second half, for players with 8+ lines in each. Near 0 means a player's record against these lines tends not to repeat.
Break Points Won lines by tour
Players who cleared the break points won line most often
 Zizou BergsWorld No. 40 | ATP | 73% | 11-4-0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | +1.2 | Within noise |
 Arthur FeryWorld No. 32 | ATP | 73% | 11-4-0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | Within noise |
 Elina SvitolinaWorld No. 6 | WTA | 73% | 16-5-1 | 4.3 | 5.2 | +0.9 | Beyond noise |
 Ben SheltonWorld No. 4 | ATP | 73% | 16-6-0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | +0.5 | Beyond noise |
 Rafael JodarWorld No. 10 | ATP | 71% | 15-5-1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | +0.9 | Beyond noise |
 Frances TiafoeWorld No. 8 | ATP | 69% | 18-7-1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | +0.9 | Beyond noise |
 Hubert HurkaczWorld No. 29 | ATP | 65% | 13-7-0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | +0.5 | Within noise |
 Iga SwiatekWorld No. 9 | WTA | 64% | 18-9-1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | -0.0 | Within noise |
 Botic Van De ZandschulpWorld No. 37 | ATP | 63% | 12-7-0 | 2.2 | 2.9 | +0.7 | Within noise |
 Quentin HalysWorld No. 46 | ATP | 63% | 10-6-0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | Within noise |
 Yulia StarodubtsevaWorld No. 54 | WTA | 60% | 9-6-0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | +0.4 | Within noise |
 Francisco CerundoloWorld No. 20 | ATP | 60% | 9-6-0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | +0.5 | Within noise |
 Daniel AltmaierWorld No. 63 | ATP | 56% | 9-7-0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | Within noise |
 Alex MichelsenWorld No. 35 | ATP | 56% | 9-7-0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | +0.6 | Within noise |
 Jan-Lennard StruffWorld No. 39 | ATP | 56% | 9-7-0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | +0.5 | Within noise |
 Lanlana TararudeeWorld No. 63 | WTA | 56% | 9-7-0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | -0.3 | Within noise |
 Nikola BartunkovaWorld No. 29 | WTA | 56% | 14-8-3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | +0.6 | Within noise |
 Jessica Bouzas ManeiroWorld No. 100 | WTA | 56% | 10-7-1 | 4.4 | 4.9 | +0.5 | Within noise |
 Maja ChwalinskaWorld No. 12 | WTA | 56% | 10-8-0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | +0.3 | Within noise |
 Nuno BorgesWorld No. 49 | ATP | 55% | 11-8-1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | Within noise |
 Brandon NakashimaWorld No. 18 | ATP | 55% | 11-9-0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | Within noise |
 Taylor FritzWorld No. 12 | ATP | 54% | 14-12-0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | +0.3 | Within noise |
 Coco GauffWorld No. 4 | WTA | 54% | 15-13-0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | +0.2 | Within noise |
 Jelena OstapenkoWorld No. 25 | WTA | 53% | 8-7-0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | -0.2 | Within noise |
 Karen KhachanovWorld No. 25 | ATP | 53% | 8-7-0 | 2.6 | 2.9 | +0.3 | Within noise |
Players who stayed under the break points won line most often
 Ann LiWorld No. 31 | WTA | 25% | 5-13-2 | 3.9 | 3.2 | -0.7 | Within noise |
 Andrey RublevWorld No. 22 | ATP | 26% | 5-13-1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | -0.7 | Within noise |
 Juan Manuel CerundoloWorld No. 54 | ATP | 27% | 4-10-1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -0.4 | Within noise |
 Aryna SabalenkaWorld No. 2 | WTA | 29% | 6-14-1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | -0.4 | Within noise |
 Karolina MuchovaWorld No. 7 | WTA | 30% | 6-13-1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | -0.6 | Within noise |
 Raphael CollignonWorld No. 55 | ATP | 31% | 5-11-0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -0.7 | Within noise |
 Liudmila SamsonovaWorld No. 40 | WTA | 33% | 5-7-3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | +0.3 | Within noise |
 Tomas Martin EtcheverryWorld No. 31 | ATP | 33% | 5-10-0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | Within noise |
 Sara BejlekWorld No. 33 | WTA | 33% | 6-11-1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | -0.4 | Within noise |
 Alycia ParksWorld No. 59 | WTA | 33% | 6-12-0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | -0.7 | Within noise |
 Naomi OsakaWorld No. 16 | WTA | 35% | 7-10-3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | -0.3 | Within noise |
 Diane ParryWorld No. 34 | WTA | 35% | 6-11-0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | -0.9 | Within noise |
 Luciano DarderiWorld No. 21 | ATP | 36% | 8-13-1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | -0.2 | Within noise |
 Daria KasatkinaWorld No. 73 | WTA | 38% | 6-5-5 | 4.9 | 5.1 | +0.3 | Within noise |
 Leylah FernandezWorld No. 18 | WTA | 38% | 9-13-2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | -0.5 | Within noise |
 Maria SakkariWorld No. 30 | WTA | 38% | 8-12-1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | -0.6 | Within noise |
 Linda NoskovaWorld No. 8 | WTA | 38% | 8-12-1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | -0.5 | Within noise |
 Marie BouzkovaWorld No. 23 | WTA | 39% | 7-10-1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | Within noise |
 Anna KalinskayaWorld No. 26 | WTA | 40% | 6-8-1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | -0.2 | Within noise |
 Clara TausonWorld No. 58 | WTA | 40% | 6-9-0 | 3.6 | 2.7 | -1.0 | Within noise |
 Arthur FilsWorld No. 7 | ATP | 41% | 7-10-0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | -0.0 | Within noise |
 Ugo HumbertWorld No. 38 | ATP | 41% | 7-9-1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | Within noise |
 Flavio CobolliWorld No. 6 | ATP | 41% | 7-9-1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -0.2 | Within noise |
 Tommy PaulWorld No. 14 | ATP | 42% | 10-14-0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | -0.1 | Within noise |
 Alex De MinaurWorld No. 9 | ATP | 42% | 8-11-0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | -0.5 | Within noise |
Using prop line record on a prop
Start with the prop baseline
Break Points Won go over 49% of the time, so that is the number to compare a player with, not 50%. The average line is 3.28 and the average result is 3.32.
Compare the player
Zizou Bergs is 11-4 against the line, an average of 3.47 on an average line of 2.23. Ann Li is 5-13-2, 3.2 on 3.9.
Check if it repeats
A player's over rate on this prop in the first half of the window correlates -0.04 with the second half, across 40 players, so don't assume a run repeats.
Then look at the price
A hit rate is not a profit. Prices and payouts differ by app and by side. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Compares each player's final stat with the main line PickFinder stored for that player and match, for props listed on PrizePicks, Underdog or Dabble, leaving out alternate lines. Lines have been stored since May 12, 2026, one per player, match and prop. Results come from finished singles matches at every level, including Challenger and WTA 125. Retired matches and walkovers are left out, and a push counts as neither over nor under. A player needs 15+ lines to appear. Beyond noise tests a player's over rate against the 49% baseline at two standard deviations. The page shows hit rates, not returns: it doesn't hold the price on either side.
Prop line record FAQ
How often do tennis break points won props go over?
49% of 3,556 posted lines since May 12, 2026, with 121 pushes. On the ATP it is 51.6%, and on the WTA 46.8%.
Who goes over their break points won line most often?
Zizou Bergs: over on 11 of 15 lines, averaging 3.47 on an average line of 2.23.
Who goes under their break points won line most often?
Ann Li: over on 5 of 20 lines, averaging 3.2 on an average line of 3.9.
Does a player's record against the line repeat?
Rarely. On this prop, the over rate in the first half of the window correlates -0.04 with the second half across 40 players.
Does a high hit rate mean the side is profitable?
No. This page counts hits, not returns. Prices and payouts differ by app and by side, and this table doesn't hold them.
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