Market beaters
WTA 125 market beaters: win rate against closing odds
PickFinder Team•Updated:
Julia Grabher has beaten the closing tennis odds by the most in WTA 125 events over the last 52 weeks: 73.3% wins against 55.7% implied, over 30 matches. Mia Ristic has lagged them the most, 51.4% against 56%. Some of this looks real, much of it noise: 2 of 16 players sit outside the noise band where chance alone would put about 0.7, and a player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.17 with the last 26.
- Players with 30+ priced matches
- 16
- Beyond noise. Chance alone gives about 0.7
- 2
- First 26 weeks vs last 26 (correlation of the gap)
- -0.17
- Priced matches counted
- 2,507
WTA 125 win rate against closing odds, biggest gap first
| 1 |  Julia GrabherWorld No. 112 | 73.3% | 55.7% | +17.7 | ±16.8 | Beyond noise | 22-8 | 17-3 | 5-5 |
| 2 |  Alina CharaevaWorld No. 82 | 68.6% | 51.9% | +16.7 | ±15.4 | Beyond noise | 24-11 | 13-4 | 11-7 |
| 3 |  Despina PapamichailWorld No. 209 | 50.0% | 34.6% | +15.4 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 15-15 | 5-1 | 10-14 |
| 4 |  Fiona FerroWorld No. 96 | 73.5% | 61.5% | +12.1 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 25-9 | 20-5 | 5-4 |
| 5 |  Polona HercogWorld No. 201 | 70.0% | 60.1% | +9.9 | ±15.7 | Within noise | 21-9 | 14-4 | 7-5 |
| 6 |  Leyre Romero GormazWorld No. 131 | 65.8% | 56.4% | +9.4 | ±14.9 | Within noise | 25-13 | 16-6 | 9-7 |
| 7 |  Leolia JeanjeanWorld No. 91 | 62.9% | 56.0% | +6.8 | ±15.5 | Within noise | 22-13 | 13-8 | 9-5 |
| 8 |  Carole MonnetWorld No. 218 | 51.4% | 45.6% | +5.8 | ±14.7 | Within noise | 19-18 | 10-2 | 9-16 |
| 9 |  Laura SamsonWorld No. 116 | 66.7% | 62.0% | +4.7 | ±16.0 | Within noise | 22-11 | 18-7 | 4-4 |
| 10 |  Polina KudermetovaWorld No. 93 | 66.7% | 63.6% | +3.1 | ±16.3 | Within noise | 20-10 | 15-7 | 5-3 |
| 11 |  Noma Noha AkugueWorld No. 118 | 60.0% | 58.7% | +1.3 | ±15.3 | Within noise | 21-14 | 19-4 | 2-10 |
| 12 |  Mayar SherifWorld No. 56 | 70.0% | 69.5% | +0.5 | ±13.7 | Within noise | 28-12 | 26-9 | 2-3 |
| 13 |  Lucia BronzettiWorld No. 134 | 52.4% | 56.5% | -4.1 | ±14.1 | Within noise | 22-20 | 15-9 | 7-11 |
| 14 |  Veronika ErjavecWorld No. 158 | 63.6% | 67.8% | -4.2 | ±15.1 | Within noise | 21-12 | 21-8 | 0-4 |
| 15 |  Teodora KostovicWorld No. 141 | 53.3% | 57.7% | -4.4 | ±17.1 | Within noise | 16-14 | 12-7 | 4-7 |
| 16 |  Mia RisticWorld No. 184 | 51.4% | 56.0% | -4.6 | ±15.4 | Within noise | 18-17 | 13-9 | 5-8 |
How good is the closing price?
Each band is the favorite's no-vig chance at the close. Power de-vig tracks the real win rate. Proportional de-vig, the common shortcut, understates favorites, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater. This page uses power.
Using market beaters on a prop
Read the gap
Julia Grabher won 73.3% against 55.7% implied, a gap of +17.7 points over 30 matches. The noise band for that sample is ±16.8, so a gap has to be that big before it stands out at all.
Split favorites and underdogs
Julia Grabher is 17-3 as a favorite and 5-5 as an underdog. Mia Ristic is 13-9 and 5-8. It shows where a record came from.
Treat it as context for the price
This explains what has happened, not what comes next. A player's gap correlates -0.17 from one half of the window to the next, across 16 players. Don't read a big gap as a reason to bet.
Start from the close
Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 87.2% of 320 matches against 84.3% implied by the power de-vig. The closing price is hard to beat, so treat it as your starting point. Today's line and the hit rate against it are in PickFinder.
How this is counted
Counts finished singles matches with a closing moneyline on both players, Nov 4, 2025 to Nov 4, 2026. 95% of prices are Pinnacle's, and the rest come from another major book. Implied % removes the vig with a power de-vig, because it matches real win rates. The proportional shortcut understates favorites: at 80% to 90% it gives 82.1%, power gives 84.3%, and they actually won 87.2%. Gap is win % minus average implied %. The noise band is two standard deviations of what those prices would produce by chance over that many matches. Beyond noise means the gap is outside it, and with this many players some will be by luck, which is why the page shows the count. Retired matches and walkovers are left out. Only WTA 125 matches count here, qualifying included. Main tour matches have their own view. A player needs 30+ priced matches.
Market beaters FAQ
Who has beaten the market the most in WTA 125 events?
Julia Grabher: 73.3% wins against 55.7% implied over 30 matches, a gap of +17.7 points with a noise band of ±16.8.
Who has been most overrated in WTA 125 events?
Mia Ristic: 51.4% wins against 56% implied over 35 matches, a gap of -4.6 points.
Does beating the market carry over?
Not much. A player's gap in the first 26 weeks correlates -0.17 with the last 26 across 16 players. 2 of 16 players sit outside the noise band, and chance alone would put about 0.7 there.
Are closing tennis odds accurate?
Close to it, after a power de-vig. Favorites priced at 80% to 90% won 87.2% of 320 matches against 84.3% implied.
Why not use the simple proportional de-vig?
It understates favorites. At 80% to 90% it gives 82.1% against a real win rate of 87.2%, which would make every heavy favorite look like a market beater.
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