How to Research Tennis Fantasy Score Props on PrizePicks

Fantasy score is the most common tennis prop on PrizePicks. It combines games, sets, aces and double faults into one number, which makes it feel like a stat about the player. In practice it's mostly a bet on whether she wins, and by how much. Here's how the score adds up and how to research it in PickFinder, using Elena Rybakina against Linda Noskova at the WTA Finals on November 8, 2026.

How PrizePicks scores tennis

• 10 points for playing the match
• +1 per game won, -1 per game lost
• +3 per set won, -3 per set lost
• +0.5 per ace, -0.5 per double fault

Our tennis fantasy score chart has worked examples. The key point: sets are worth three times as much as games, and losing sets takes points away. A 6-4, 6-4 win scores 10 + 12 - 8 + 6 = 20 before serving stats. The same score as a loss is 10 + 8 - 12 - 6 = 0.

Read the chart

Rybakina's line was 20 fantasy points at -119 both ways on PrizePicks, moved up from 18.5 the day before. She went over in 7 of her last 10 matches, averaging 20.0, and 4 of her last 5.

The shape is typical of fantasy score. Her seven overs land between 20.5 and 26. Two September matches came in at 17 and 15.5, and her worst match, in early October, was worth 3. Every set she drops costs 6 points against a set won, so a tight three-setter scores well below a straight-sets win, and a loss can fall close to zero. The question for a fantasy line is less "how well does she play" and more "does she win, and in how many sets".

Check the win probability

The Matchup tab had Rybakina 65% to win (-197), best of three on an outdoor hard court. PickFinder also shows how players have done at similar odds: as a favorite at this price, she had won 16 of 18 matches. For a fantasy over, that number matters more than any average.

Then think about the margin. Her line of 20 is roughly a 6-4, 6-4 win plus serving stats. With her 6.5 aces and 3.4 double faults a match, serving adds about 1.5 points, so a 6-4, 6-4 win lands near 21.5 and a tighter three-set win can land lower. A dominant 6-2, 6-2 win scores 10 + 12 - 4 + 6 = 24 before serving stats.

Advanced averages: fantasy points by split

The FP column gives her average fantasy points in each split of her last 15 matches. Rybakina was 14-1 and averaged 20.83, all on hard courts. Against right-handers, like Noskova, she averaged 18.50, below the line, compared with 22.75 against left-handers. In her one previous match against Noskova she scored 25. Splits like these are often the difference between a line that looks easy and one that's fair.

The other columns help explain the number: DR (dominance ratio) measures how much she outplays opponents on return and serve, and Hold % shows how often she holds serve.

Fantasy score checklist

1. Win probability, and her record at similar odds.
2. Likely margin: straight sets or three.
3. Fantasy points against this opponent type (righty or lefty) and on this surface.
4. Aces and double faults per match.
5. Line movement since the open.

For games won and aces, see our guides to tennis player props and aces props.