How to Research Tennis Aces Props

Aces props look like a pure serving stat, but the number a player hits depends on four things: how well she serves, how well her opponent returns, the surface, and how many service games the match lasts. Get all four roughly right and aces lines become one of the more predictable tennis props. This guide uses Elena Rybakina against Linda Noskova at the WTA Finals on November 8, 2026 to show where each piece lives in PickFinder.

What drives aces

• The server. Big servers hit aces every match. Most players hit a few.
• The returner. Some players are very hard to ace; others give up plenty. PickFinder tracks aces allowed for every player.
• The surface. Grass and fast hard courts produce the most aces, clay the fewest.
• Match length. More service games mean more chances. A long three-setter gives a server far more aces than a quick straight-sets win.

Read the chart

No aces line was posted for this match when we checked, so we typed 5.5 into the line box, which works for any number. Rybakina went over 5.5 in 6 of her last 10 matches, averaging 6.7 aces. Her range was wide: 12 aces twice, 3 aces twice. A 60% hit rate with that spread means the matchup has to do the work.

The Supporting Stats row under the chart adds her double faults (3.5 a match) and serve percentages. Use the Court Type filter to see her aces on one surface only.

Aces hit and aces allowed

Advanced Averages shows each player's last 15 matches by surface and opponent. Aces is how many the player hits per match; Ace All. is how many she allows her opponents. Rybakina hit 6.5 aces a match, all on hard courts, and 8 in her one previous match against Noskova.

Switch to the opponent to see the other half. Noskova allowed 5.4 aces a match on hard courts and 8 in the head-to-head. A big server facing a returner who gives up more than five aces a match is the setup aces overs are built on. Noskova is also a strong server herself, at 7.3 aces a match on hard courts, so expect a match decided on serve.

Match length

Rybakina was 65% to win (-197) in a best-of-three on an outdoor hard court. If she wins in straight sets, she serves around 10 or 11 games; a third set adds five or more. At her rate of roughly 0.6 aces per service game, that's the difference between about 6 aces and about 9. A strong favorite hurts her own aces over through shorter matches, so weigh the win probability against the matchup.

Aces checklist

1. The server's aces per match, on this surface.
2. The returner's aces allowed.
3. Head-to-head aces, filtered to the same format.
4. Expected match length from the win probability.
5. The line at other apps and the sportsbooks.

For games won and match-level research, see our guide to tennis player props. The tennis research page lists every market and tour we cover.