Expected Value Calculator

Expected value (EV) is the long-run average result of a bet: what you would earn per wager if you could place it thousands of times. Enter your stake, the odds your book is offering, and your estimated win probability, and this calculator tells you whether the bet makes or loses money over time. The formula is win probability times profit-if-won, minus loss probability times your stake.

The hard part is the win probability. A common approach is to take a sharp market's two-sided prices, strip the vig with our no-vig calculator, and use the resulting fair probability. If the EV comes back positive, you have found an edge; if it is negative, the price is not worth taking, however tempting the pick.