Pick
Isaiah Likely over 4.5 Receptions
Best NFL pick for Giants vs Commanders, Nov 12, 2026
PickFinder Team•Updated:
- Team
- TE, New York Giants
- Matchup
- New York Giants vs Washington Commanders
- Book
PrizePicks- Start
The research behind Isaiah Likely over 4.5 Receptions
Isaiah Likely (Giants TE) has a receptions line of 4.5, and the pick is the over, in the Giants vs Commanders game on Nov 12, 2026 at 8:15 PM ET. The line is on PrizePicks.
The recent hit rates favor the over. He is at 80% over the last 5 games and 60% over the last 10. The season rate is 67%, with an average of 5 receptions. The picture fades over a longer span, though. The last 15 games show 47%, and the head-to-head rate is 50% on a 1/2 sample, which is too small to lean on. In the 2026 regular season log, he is at or over the line in 6 of 8 games, averaging 5.8. Two games came in under, with 2 receptions on 9/27 and 2 on 10/25. The 10/11 game at Washington went for 11 receptions against a 4.5 line.
The matchup also points toward the over. The Commanders rank 27th against tight ends in receptions, allowing 4.9 per game. They rank 28th in targets allowed, at 6.6 per game. Over the last 5 games they rank 30th in receptions allowed. Likely holds 26.5% of the Giants' targets, second on the team behind M. Nabers at 30%.
The risk is the line itself. 4.5 sits just below his 5 per game average, so a couple of quiet games would push him under.
Posted . Lines and prices are from when this post went up.
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Hit rates
Averaging 5 Receptions over the last 10. Current run: 1 straight over 4.5.
Over in 6 of 8
Game log
Isaiah Likely reached 4.5 in 6 of the 8 games below (filters: Regular Season).
Commanders rank 27th vs tight ends
Defense vs position
Commanders vs TE. Rank 1 of 32 is the toughest defense, rank 32 gives up the most.
27% of the Giants' targets
Team usage
Giants pass on 56% of plays and run on 44% in 2026.
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Isaiah Likely Receptions pick FAQ
What is the NFL pick for Giants vs Commanders on Nov 12, 2026?
Isaiah Likely over 4.5 Receptions at PrizePicks.
How often has Isaiah Likely gone over 4.5 Receptions?
Isaiah Likely finished over 4.5 in 6 of the last 8 games (Regular Season). The over rate at this line is 80% in the L5, 60% in the L10, 47% in the L15. The average over the last 10 is 5.
How do the Commanders defend TE in Receptions?
Commanders rank 27th of 32 against TE in Receptions, allowing 4.9 per game. Rank 1 is the toughest.
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PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For NFL it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The research on this page is free.
