Soft spots
Softest NFL matchups right now
PickFinder Team•Updated:
The softest NFL matchup right now: the Washington Commanders allow 3.2 tackles + assists per game to defensive linemen (32nd of 32, league average 2.5). Next: the Detroit Lions allow 26.9 completions per game to quarterbacks (32nd of 32, league average 20.8).
Getting softer: the New England Patriots gave up 6 tackles + assists per game to linebackers over their last 5, up from 5.2 on the season. Getting tougher: the New York Jets, at 3.7 over the last 5 and 4.4 on the season. These are 2026 numbers through about 8 games per team.
Green means opponents put up more of that stat, red means less. Ranks are never flipped, so a high rank on a stat like turnovers means opponents turn it over more against this team.
Softest matchups
Position and stat pairs in the last 25% of the league where the last 5 games are still above average. Sorted by how far the number sits from the league average for that exact pair, out of 448 checked.
 Washington Commanders | DL Tackles + Assists | 3.232nd | 3.232nd | 2.5 | +28% |
 Detroit Lions | QB Pass Completions | 26.932nd | 26.631st | 20.8 | +29% |
| Detroit Lions | QB Pass TDs | 2.632nd | 2.431st | 1.5 | +73% |
 San Francisco 49ers | RB Receptions | 3.132nd | 3.732nd | 2.1 | +48% |
 Indianapolis Colts | DL Tackles + Assists | 3.131st | 2.929th | 2.5 | +24% |
 Cincinnati Bengals | TE Rec Yards | 66.332nd | 59.627th | 40.8 | +63% |
 Houston Texans | WR Rec Yards | 62.232nd | 63.530th | 45.8 | +36% |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | RB Rec Yards | 23.232nd | 26.532nd | 14.8 | +57% |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | WR Rec Yards | 6131st | 64.131st | 45.8 | +33% |
 New England Patriots | LB Tackles + Assists | 5.232nd | 632nd | 4.4 | +18% |
 Las Vegas Raiders | RB Rush Yards | 61.932nd | 74.532nd | 45.5 | +36% |
| Indianapolis Colts | K Kicking Points | 9.832nd | 9.427th | 7.4 | +32% |
 Arizona Cardinals | QB Pass TDs | 2.329th | 229th | 1.5 | +53% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | QB Pass TDs | 2.329th | 2.632nd | 1.5 | +53% |
 Miami Dolphins | QB Pass TDs | 2.329th | 2.230th | 1.5 | +53% |
| Washington Commanders | TE Rec Yards | 60.430th | 60.630th | 40.8 | +48% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | RB Receptions | 2.831st | 3.331st | 2.1 | +33% |
 Green Bay Packers | WR Receptions | 4.429th | 4.530th | 3.5 | +26% |
| Houston Texans | WR Receptions | 4.429th | 4.731st | 3.5 | +26% |
 Tennessee Titans | WR Receptions | 4.429th | 5.232nd | 3.5 | +26% |
Getting softer
The last 5 games are at least 12% above the team's season number, and now in the softer part of the league. Teams with at least 8 games only.
| New England Patriots | LB Tackles + Assists | 5.232nd | 632nd | +15% |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.49th | 2.825th | +17% |
 Atlanta Falcons | RB Rush Yards | 53.827th | 71.431st | +33% |
| Tennessee Titans | WR Receptions | 4.429th | 5.232nd | +18% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | K Kicking Points | 7.817th | 1030th | +28% |
| Tennessee Titans | QB Pass Yards | 264.930th | 304.432nd | +15% |
 Los Angeles Rams | K Kicking Points | 930th | 1132nd | +22% |
 Cleveland Browns | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.622nd | 2.929th | +12% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | RB Rush Yards | 61.932nd | 74.532nd | +20% |
| Green Bay Packers | RB Receptions | 2.116th | 2.629th | +24% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | RB Receptions | 2.831st | 3.331st | +18% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | QB Pass Completions | 22.625th | 25.429th | +12% |
Getting tougher
The last 5 games are at least 12% below the team's season number, and now in the tougher part of the league. A season average can hide this.
 New York Jets | DB Tackles + Assists | 4.428th | 3.79th | -16% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | K Kicking Points | 7.613th | 4.84th | -37% |
| Cleveland Browns | K Kicking Points | 7.918th | 5.67th | -29% |
| Indianapolis Colts | QB Pass Yards | 219.513th | 176.64th | -20% |
| Atlanta Falcons | WR Rec Yards | 47.922nd | 37.87th | -21% |
| Atlanta Falcons | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.49th | 2.11st | -12% |
| Indianapolis Colts | WR Rec Yards | 39.68th | 30.31st | -23% |
 Denver Broncos | WR Rec Yards | 47.521st | 39.49th | -17% |
| Cleveland Browns | QB Pass TDs | 1.411th | 14th | -29% |
 Dallas Cowboys | QB Pass TDs | 1.411th | 14th | -29% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | RB Rush Yards | 33.34th | 22.91st | -31% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TE Rec Yards | 30.46th | 201st | -34% |
Most exposed defenses
How many of the main position and stat pairs put this team in the league's bottom five. A team on this list gives up production across several roles, not one.
| Detroit Lions | 8 | QB Pass Completions: 26.9 (32nd), QB Pass TDs: 2.6 (32nd) |
| Washington Commanders | 5 | DL Tackles + Assists: 3.2 (32nd), TE Rec Yards: 60.4 (30th) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | TE Rec Yards: 66.3 (32nd), TE Receptions: 5.3 (29th) |
 New Orleans Saints | 4 | RB Rush Yards: 60.1 (31st), TE Rec Yards: 58.9 (29th) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | RB Receptions: 3.1 (32nd), RB Rec Yards: 21.1 (29th) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | DL Tackles + Assists: 3.1 (31st), K Kicking Points: 9.8 (32nd) |
| Houston Texans | 3 | WR Rec Yards: 62.2 (32nd), WR Receptions: 4.4 (29th) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | RB Rec Yards: 23.2 (32nd), RB Receptions: 2.8 (31st) |
Using soft spots on a prop
Match the spot to tonight's games
The top row is the Washington Commanders against defensive linemen on tackles + assists. It only matters if the Washington Commanders are playing and the opposing defensive lineman has a line on that stat.
Read the gap
The Washington Commanders allow 3.2 per game, 28% above the league's 2.5, and 32nd of 32.
Check it is still true
Over the last 5 games the number is 3.2, 32nd in the league. If it has dropped a lot, the defense may have changed.
Then check the player
Open the player in the app: how they have done against today's exact line, who is out, and which book has the best price.
How this is counted
We check the main prop stats at each position for every team with at least 4 games: 448 team, position and stat pairs. A soft spot is in the last 25% of the league on the season with a last 5 still above average, sorted by distance from the league average for that pair in standard deviations. Getting softer or tougher needs 8+ games, a gap of at least 12% between the last 5 and the season, and a last 5 rank on the matching end of the league. Computed each morning from every box score of the season, preseason excluded, and refreshed here by 8:40 AM ET.
Soft spots FAQ
What is the softest NFL matchup right now?
The Washington Commanders allow 3.2 tackles + assists per game to defensive linemen (32nd of 32, league average 2.5). That is 28% above average. These are 2026 numbers through about 8 games per team.
Which NFL defense is getting worse?
The New England Patriots have the biggest jump against linebackers on tackles + assists: 6 per game over the last 5, against 5.2 on the season.
Which NFL defense is getting better?
The New York Jets have the biggest drop against defensive backs on tackles + assists: 3.7 per game over the last 5, against 4.4 on the season.
Which NFL defense is the most exposed overall?
The Detroit Lions: 8 of the main position and stat pairs land in the league's bottom five.
How is a soft spot chosen?
A team must be in the last 25% of the league on that exact position and stat, and its last 5 games must still be above average. The list sorts by how far the number sits from the league average for that pair, in standard deviations, so a stat with small numbers cannot crowd out the rest. It is research, not a promise of how a game goes.
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