Pick
Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 Rec Yards
Best NFL pick for 49ers vs Raiders, Nov 8, 2026
PickFinder Team•Updated:
- Team
- RB, San Francisco 49ers
- Matchup
- San Francisco 49ers vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Book
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The research behind Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 Rec Yards
Christian McCaffrey's rec yards over 38.5 for the 49ers vs Raiders game on Nov 8, 2026 (PrizePicks) has support in the recent numbers, with a few softer spots.
He has gone over this kind of line in 60% of his last 5 games and 60% of his last 10. The rate drops to 53% over his last 15 and sits at 57% for the season. His average is 39, which is only just above the 38.5 line. That is a thin cushion, so the pick leans on the context more than on the average. He has a 2-game streak going.
The context is the stronger part. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are both listed out. In the 2 games this season without Samuel Sr., McCaffrey had 61 yards against a 40.5 line on 10/25 at ATL and 53 against a 39.5 line on 10/19 vs WAS. Both cleared the line, for an average of 57. That is a sample of 2, so it is a lean and not a trend. McCaffrey has 42 targets, 20.5% of the team's total, second to George Kittle at 46. With Evans (39 targets) and Samuel (20 targets) out, a share of those looks could move to him. The numbers don't say how much.
Posted . Lines and prices are from when this post went up.
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Hit rates
Averaging 39 Rec Yards over the last 10. Current run: 2 straight over 38.5.
Over in 2 of 2
Game log
Christian McCaffrey reached 38.5 in 2 of the 2 games below (filters: Without Samuel Sr., Regular Season).
20% of the 49ers' targets
Team usage
49ers pass on 53% of plays and run on 47% in 2026.
2 49ers out
Injuries
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Christian McCaffrey Rec Yards pick FAQ
What is the NFL pick for 49ers vs Raiders on Nov 8, 2026?
Christian McCaffrey over 38.5 Rec Yards at PrizePicks.
How often has Christian McCaffrey gone over 38.5 Rec Yards?
Christian McCaffrey finished over 38.5 in 2 of the last 2 games (Without Samuel Sr., Regular Season). The over rate at this line is 60% in the L5, 60% in the L10, 53% in the L15. The average over the last 10 is 39.
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PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For NFL it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The research on this page is free.
