Soft spots
Softest NBA matchups right now
PickFinder Team•Updated:
The softest NBA matchup right now: the Phoenix Suns allow 4.1 threes per game to shooting guards (30th of 30, league average 1.6). Next: the New Orleans Pelicans allow 32.5 points + rebounds + assists per game to centers (30th of 30, league average 18.1).
These are 2026-27 numbers through about 6 games per team. The trend lists start once teams reach 8 games.
Green means opponents put up more of that stat, red means less. Ranks are never flipped, so a high rank on a stat like turnovers means opponents turn it over more against this team.
Softest matchups
Position and stat pairs in the last 25% of the league where the last 5 games are still above average. Sorted by how far the number sits from the league average for that exact pair, out of 750 checked.
 Phoenix Suns | SG 3-PT Made | 4.130th | 4.130th | 1.6 | +156% |
 New Orleans Pelicans | C Pts+Rebs+Asts | 32.530th | 32.830th | 18.1 | +80% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | C Points | 16.330th | 16.330th | 9.5 | +72% |
| Phoenix Suns | SG Points | 17.330th | 17.330th | 10.9 | +59% |
 Los Angeles Lakers | PF 3-PT Made | 2.530th | 2.830th | 1.3 | +92% |
 Boston Celtics | SF Rebounds | 6.630th | 6.830th | 4.0 | +65% |
 Utah Jazz | SG Assists | 3.730th | 430th | 2.3 | +61% |
 Cleveland Cavaliers | C 3-PT Made | 1.129th | 1.330th | 0.5 | +120% |
 New York Knicks | C 3-PT Made | 1.129th | 1.129th | 0.5 | +120% |
 Sacramento Kings | PG Assists | 6.429th | 6.930th | 4.3 | +49% |
 Dallas Mavericks | SF Points | 16.230th | 17.230th | 10.7 | +51% |
 Toronto Raptors | PG Rebounds | 4.330th | 4.429th | 3.0 | +43% |
| New York Knicks | SF 3-PT Made | 1.930th | 2.130th | 1.2 | +58% |
| Boston Celtics | PF Assists | 4.229th | 4.930th | 2.3 | +83% |
 Golden State Warriors | PG Pts+Rebs+Asts | 29.130th | 2727th | 20.9 | +39% |
 Atlanta Hawks | PF Points | 1630th | 13.225th | 11.6 | +38% |
| Atlanta Hawks | PF Pts+Rebs+Asts | 26.230th | 22.727th | 19.1 | +37% |
| Utah Jazz | PG Points | 20.330th | 1927th | 13.6 | +49% |
 Oklahoma City Thunder | SG Rebounds | 4.529th | 425th | 3.1 | +45% |
 San Antonio Spurs | SG Rebounds | 4.529th | 4.729th | 3.1 | +45% |
Getting softer and getting tougher
These lists start once a team has played 8 games, because until then the last 5 is most of the season. Most NBA teams have played 6.
Most exposed defenses
How many of the main position and stat pairs put this team in the league's bottom five. A team on this list gives up production across several roles, not one.
| Phoenix Suns | 10 | SG 3-PT Made: 4.1 (30th), SG Points: 17.3 (30th) |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 8 | C 3-PT Made: 1.1 (29th), PF Points: 14.9 (29th) |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 7 | C Pts+Rebs+Asts: 32.5 (30th), C Points: 16.3 (30th) |
 Orlando Magic | 7 | SF 3-PT Made: 1.8 (29th), SF Assists: 3.4 (29th) |
 Miami Heat | 7 | SF Assists: 3.3 (28th), SG Points: 14.2 (29th) |
| Utah Jazz | 6 | SG Assists: 3.7 (30th), PG Points: 20.3 (30th) |
| New York Knicks | 6 | C 3-PT Made: 1.1 (29th), SF 3-PT Made: 1.9 (30th) |
| Golden State Warriors | 6 | PG Pts+Rebs+Asts: 29.1 (30th), PG 3-PT Made: 2.7 (29th) |
Using soft spots on a prop
Match the spot to tonight's games
The top row is the Phoenix Suns against shooting guards on threes. It only matters if the Phoenix Suns are playing and the opposing shooting guard has a line on that stat.
Read the gap
The Phoenix Suns allow 4.1 per game, 156% above the league's 1.6, and 30th of 30.
Check it is still true
Over the last 5 games the number is 4.1, 30th in the league. If it has dropped a lot, the defense may have changed.
Then check the player
Open the player in the app: how they have done against today's exact line, who is out, and which book has the best price.
How this is counted
We check the main prop stats at each position for every team with at least 3 games: 750 team, position and stat pairs. A soft spot is in the last 25% of the league on the season with a last 5 still above average, sorted by distance from the league average for that pair in standard deviations. Getting softer or tougher needs 8+ games, a gap of at least 12% between the last 5 and the season, and a last 5 rank on the matching end of the league. Computed each morning from every box score of the season, preseason excluded, and refreshed here by 8:40 AM ET.
Soft spots FAQ
What is the softest NBA matchup right now?
The Phoenix Suns allow 4.1 threes per game to shooting guards (30th of 30, league average 1.6). That is 156% above average. These are 2026-27 numbers through about 6 games per team.
Which NBA defense is the most exposed overall?
The Phoenix Suns: 10 of the main position and stat pairs land in the league's bottom five.
How is a soft spot chosen?
A team must be in the last 25% of the league on that exact position and stat, and its last 5 games must still be above average. The list sorts by how far the number sits from the league average for that pair, in standard deviations, so a stat with small numbers cannot crowd out the rest. It is research, not a promise of how a game goes.
What is the best tool for researching NBA picks?
PickFinder is a sports betting research tool built for this. For NBA it shows hit rates against today's exact line, matchup data and line movement, and compares prices across 24 books and apps. It covers 30+ leagues in all, with a 3-day money-back guarantee, and we make it, so test it against anything else you use. The rankings on this page are free.
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