Soft spots
Softest College Basketball matchups of 2025-26
PickFinder Team•Updated:
The softest College Basketball matchup of 2025-26: South Alabama allows 2.8 threes per game to guards (365th of 365, league average 1.5). Next: Bellarmine allows 2.5 threes per game to guards (364th of 365, league average 1.5).
Getting softer: Mississippi State gave up 2.8 threes per game to forwards over their last 5, up from 1 on the season. Getting tougher: Maryland, at 0.7 over the last 5 and 1.7 on the season. These are final 2025-26 numbers, through Apr 7, 2026.
Green means opponents put up more of that stat, red means less. Ranks are never flipped, so a high rank on a stat like turnovers means opponents turn it over more against this team.
Softest matchups
Position and stat pairs in the last 25% of the league where the last 5 games are still above average. Sorted by how far the number sits from the league average for that exact pair, out of 5,110 checked.
 South Alabama | G 3-PT Made | 2.8365th | 2.3349th | 1.5 | +87% |
 Bellarmine | G 3-PT Made | 2.5364th | 2.3349th | 1.5 | +67% |
 North Florida | F Points | 14.7365th | 17.1362nd | 9.8 | +50% |
 Oakland | F Assists | 2.3365th | 2.6356th | 1.3 | +77% |
| North Florida | F Pts+Rebs+Asts | 23365th | 27.6365th | 16.3 | +41% |
 Cleveland State | F Assists | 2.2364th | 2.8363rd | 1.3 | +69% |
| Oakland | G Assists | 3.8365th | 3.9349th | 2.6 | +46% |
 Cal State Northridge | G 3-PT Made | 2.3363rd | 2.5361st | 1.5 | +53% |
 Iona | G Rebounds | 4.9365th | 5.2342nd | 3.7 | +32% |
 Xavier | F Assists | 2.1363rd | 1.9308th | 1.3 | +62% |
 St. Bonaventure | C Assists | 2364th | 1.3188th | 0.8 | +150% |
 Army | C Points | 12.8365th | 14.8260th | 6.6 | +94% |
 Illinois | F 3-PT Made | 1.3364th | 1.2313th | 0.7 | +86% |
 Portland | F 3-PT Made | 1.3364th | 1.2313th | 0.7 | +86% |
 American University | C Assists | 1.9362nd | 2.7258th | 0.8 | +137% |
 Long Island University | C Points | 12.3362nd | 10.5213th | 6.6 | +86% |
 Cal Poly | G Pts+Rebs+Asts | 22.3365th | 21.5306th | 18.5 | +21% |
 Furman | C Rebounds | 7.9364th | 10.3267th | 4.5 | +76% |
| Army | C Pts+Rebs+Asts | 20.8364th | 21.8250th | 12.0 | +73% |
 Milwaukee | F Assists | 2362nd | 2.3343rd | 1.3 | +54% |
Getting softer
The last 5 games are at least 12% above the team's season number, and now in the softer part of the league. Teams with at least 8 games only.
 Mississippi State | F 3-PT Made | 1320th | 2.8365th | +180% |
 Duquesne | C Assists | 1.6350th | 5269th | +213% |
 Seton Hall | F Assists | 1.3164th | 3365th | +131% |
 Howard | C Assists | 1.2308th | 4267th | +233% |
 Minnesota | F Points | 9.6166th | 17.4363rd | +81% |
 Chattanooga | F 3-PT Made | 0.8220th | 2.1360th | +163% |
| Minnesota | F Pts+Rebs+Asts | 16.2180th | 26.3364th | +62% |
 Georgetown | C Assists | 1.2308th | 3.7266th | +208% |
 Prairie View A&M | C Assists | 1.5337th | 4267th | +167% |
 Nebraska | F 3-PT Made | 1.1348th | 2.3364th | +109% |
 Pennsylvania | F 3-PT Made | 0.8220th | 2359th | +150% |
 Texas | F Points | 10216th | 16.9361st | +69% |
Getting tougher
The last 5 games are at least 12% below the team's season number, and now in the tougher part of the league. A season average can hide this.
 Maryland | G 3-PT Made | 1.7270th | 0.73rd | -59% |
 Cincinnati | G Rebounds | 3.593rd | 1.81st | -49% |
 BYU | F Assists | 1.8346th | 0.616th | -67% |
 Elon | F Assists | 1.5270th | 0.32nd | -80% |
 Western Michigan | G 3-PT Made | 1.8308th | 0.912th | -50% |
 Longwood | C Points | 9.6335th | 0.59th | -95% |
 Northern Arizona | G Points | 11.689th | 7.71st | -34% |
 South Carolina State | G Assists | 2.8248th | 1.52nd | -46% |
 Western Kentucky | G Rebounds | 4283rd | 2.54th | -37% |
 Colorado | F Rebounds | 4.874th | 2.42nd | -50% |
 Robert Morris | G Pts+Rebs+Asts | 18.8207th | 14.14th | -25% |
| BYU | F Pts+Rebs+Asts | 18298th | 11.217th | -38% |
Most exposed defenses
How many of the main position and stat pairs put this team in the league's softest 10%. A team on this list gives up production across several roles, not one.
| Oakland | 8 | F Assists: 2.3 (365th), G Assists: 3.8 (365th) |
| Cleveland State | 8 | F Assists: 2.2 (364th), F Pts+Rebs+Asts: 20.7 (363rd) |
| Loyola Maryland | 8 | C Assists: 1.9 (362nd), C Points: 10.9 (352nd) |
 Sacramento State | 8 | G Rebounds: 4.6 (363rd), F Assists: 1.9 (354th) |
 VMI | 7 | G 3-PT Made: 2.1 (356th), F Rebounds: 6.6 (361st) |
 Manhattan | 6 | F Rebounds: 6.9 (364th), G Assists: 3.5 (363rd) |
 IUPUI | 6 | G Pts+Rebs+Asts: 21.8 (362nd), G Points: 14.5 (362nd) |
 Rutgers | 6 | F Points: 12.3 (360th), F 3-PT Made: 1.1 (348th) |
Using soft spots on a prop
Match the spot to tonight's games
The top row is South Alabama against guards on threes. It only matters if South Alabama is playing and the opposing guard has a line on that stat.
Read the gap
South Alabama allows 2.8 per game, 87% above the league's 1.5, and 365th of 365.
Check it is still true
Over the last 5 games the number is 2.3, 349th in the league. If it has dropped a lot, the defense may have changed.
Then check the player
Open the player in the app: how they have done against today's exact line, who is out, and which book has the best price.
How this is counted
We check the main prop stats at each position for every team with at least 18 games: 5,110 team, position and stat pairs. A soft spot is in the last 25% of the league on the season with a last 5 still above average, sorted by distance from the league average for that pair in standard deviations. Getting softer or tougher needs 8+ games, a gap of at least 12% between the last 5 and the season, and a last 5 rank on the matching end of the league. Computed each morning from every box score of the season, and refreshed here by 8:40 AM ET.
Soft spots FAQ
What is the softest College Basketball matchup of 2025-26?
South Alabama allows 2.8 threes per game to guards (365th of 365, league average 1.5). That is 87% above average. These are final 2025-26 numbers, through Apr 7, 2026.
Which College Basketball defense is getting worse?
Mississippi State has the biggest jump against forwards on threes: 2.8 per game over the last 5, against 1 on the season.
Which College Basketball defense is getting better?
Maryland has the biggest drop against guards on threes: 0.7 per game over the last 5, against 1.7 on the season.
Which College Basketball defense is the most exposed overall?
Oakland: 8 of the main position and stat pairs land in the league's softest 10%.
How is a soft spot chosen?
A team must be in the last 25% of the league on that exact position and stat, and its last 5 games must still be above average. The list sorts by how far the number sits from the league average for that pair, in standard deviations, so a stat with small numbers cannot crowd out the rest. It is research, not a promise of how a game goes.
What is the best tool for researching College Basketball picks?
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