How to Research Soccer Shots on Target Props

Shots on target is one of the most popular soccer props on PrizePicks and Underdog, and one of the easiest to misread. Lines are small, usually 0.5 for most players and 1.5 or 2 for the top strikers, so a single shot decides the pick. Here's what counts as a shot on target, what drives the number, and how to research it in PickFinder.

What counts as a shot on target

A shot on target is a shot that would have gone in without a save: every goal, plus every shot the keeper stops. Shots that go wide, hit the post or get blocked by a defender don't count. That's why a player can take five shots and finish with one on target, and why shot volume and shot quality both matter.

Find the lines

Filter the soccer props board to Shots On Target to see every line for the day. Most are 0.5, and the sportsbooks often price those overs as heavy favorites (-175 to -383 on this day), which tells you the books expect the over more often than not. The IP column shows the over and under chances the sportsbooks imply.

Read shots and shots on target together

Erling Haaland's line for Manchester City at Nottingham Forest on November 7, 2026 was 2 shots on target. The colored bars are his shots on target and the faded bars behind them are all his shots. Against PSG he took 8 shots and put 3 on target; at Leipzig he took 3 and put all 3 on target. Total shots tell you how involved he was; the colored bar tells you how the prop graded.

With a whole-number line, landing exactly on it is a push, which PickFinder shows in gray. Over his last 10 he went over 3 times, pushed twice and went under 5 times. PickFinder's hit rate counts a push as reaching the line, so his last 10 read 50% and his last 5 read 80%, but two of those four were pushes. Read the bars, not only the percentage, whenever the line is a whole number. His season rate was 43%.

His log mixes the Premier League with Champions League games like PSG and Leipzig. Use the League filter to look at one competition, and the Team filter to separate club and country for international players.

Check both teams' attacking numbers

The Stats tab compares the two teams over their last 5, 15 or 30 matches. Manchester City averaged 17.1 shots and 5.7 shots on target a game over their last 15, against 14.7 and 4.0 for Forest. The Defense tab shows what each side allows. A striker on the team that takes the most shots, against a defense that allows plenty, has the most chances to land one on target.

Form matters too. The Form tab showed City had lost their last two league games, and Forest were winless in five.

Shots on target checklist

1. Is the player starting? Check Lineups. A substitute's line is a different bet.
2. Total shots, not only shots on target.
3. Hit rates over 5, 10 and 15 matches, split by competition.
4. Both teams' shots and shots allowed.
5. The sportsbook price on the over, shown in the IP column.

For goalkeepers, the same shots data drives saves lines. See how to research goalie saves props, and the full list of soccer leagues PickFinder supports.