How to Research Soccer Goalie Saves Props

Goalie saves are some of the most common soccer props on PrizePicks and the other apps. They look like a bet on the keeper, but they're really a bet on the other team's attack: a goalkeeper can only save the shots that come at him. Here's how to research a saves line in PickFinder, using Chelsea's Mike Penders at Sunderland on November 8, 2026.

Saves start with shots on target faced

A save is a shot on target that doesn't go in. So a keeper's saves are roughly the shots on target he faces minus the goals he concedes. Face 2 shots on target and the most he can make is 2, which loses a 2.5 line however well he plays. The first question is always how many shots on target the opponent will produce.

Read the chart with shots faced

Penders' line was 2.5 saves at -119 both ways on PrizePicks. The colored bars are his saves and the faded bars behind them are the shots on target he faced. He went over in 8 of his last 10 matches, averaging 3.2 saves, and 71% this season.

His two unders tell the story. In both, he faced a single shot on target. In every match where he faced 3 or more, he made at least 3 saves. Over his last 10 he faced 4.6 shots on target a game and conceded 1.4 goals, which leaves a little over 3 saves.

His last 10 matches also include last May's games in France, with a different club. Use the League and Team filters to see only his recent club.

Check the opponent's attack

The Stats tab compares both teams' attacking numbers. Over their last 15 matches, Sunderland averaged 12.7 shots and 4.0 shots on target a game, with 1.1 goals. Four shots on target with about one goal leaves roughly three saves, right around the line. Chelsea, at 4.7 shots on target a game, was the more dangerous side.

Game state and the odds

The win predictor had Chelsea 64% to win away from home. A favorite usually controls the ball and faces fewer shots, which pushes saves down. But a home side chasing the game late often fires more shots, which pushes them up. The sportsbooks leaned over: their consensus at the top of the chart put the over at 61.5%, and one book priced it at -160. When the books lean that hard one way on a fixed-payout app's line, it's worth knowing why before you go against them.

Goalie saves checklist

1. Is the keeper confirmed to start? Check Lineups. His average of 82.5 minutes a game shows he didn't always play 90.
2. Shots on target faced, not only saves.
3. The opponent's shots on target per game, over 5 and 15 matches.
4. The win predictor and who is likely to chase the game.
5. The sportsbook price on the same line.

For outfield players, see how to research shots on target props, or browse every competition on the soccer research page.