Soft spots
Softest College Football matchups right now
PickFinder Team•Updated:
The softest College Football matchup right now: Bowling Green allows 93.8 rushing yards per game to running backs (226th of 235, league average 49.6). Next: Tennessee allows 6.5 tackles + assists per game to linebackers (229th of 232, league average 4).
Getting softer: Air Force gave up 5.4 tackles + assists per game to defensive backs over their last 5, up from 3.8 on the season. Getting tougher: Florida, at 0.4 over the last 5 and 2.1 on the season. These are 2026 numbers through about 8 games per team. Only teams with at least 4 games are listed.
Green means opponents put up more of that stat, red means less. Ranks are never flipped, so a high rank on a stat like turnovers means opponents turn it over more against this team.
Softest matchups
Position and stat pairs in the last 25% of the league where the last 5 games are still above average. Sorted by how far the number sits from the league average for that exact pair, out of 1,932 checked.
 Bowling Green | RB Rush Yards | 93.8226th | 67.7127th | 49.6 | +89% |
 Tennessee | LB Tackles + Assists | 6.5229th | 7158th | 4.0 | +63% |
 Arizona State | K Kicking Points | 8.3212th | 8.8155th | 4.5 | +84% |
 Cincinnati | TE Rec Yards | 48.1222nd | 61160th | 24.8 | +94% |
 West Virginia | QB Pass Yards | 307.8222nd | 351161st | 199.9 | +54% |
 Wake Forest | RB Receptions | 2.5229th | 2.9160th | 1.3 | +92% |
 Colorado State | RB Rush Yards | 86.7220th | 88.6159th | 49.6 | +75% |
 Boise State | DB Tackles + Assists | 4.4232nd | 4150th | 3.0 | +47% |
 Texas Tech | QB Pass Completions | 25.3230th | 25.2160th | 17.3 | +46% |
 Texas State | QB Pass Completions | 25228th | 22144th | 17.3 | +45% |
 Mississippi State | RB Rec Yards | 21221st | 15.2133rd | 9.8 | +114% |
 North Carolina | RB Receptions | 2.4227th | 2.9160th | 1.3 | +85% |
| Texas Tech | RB Receptions | 2.4227th | 2.3153rd | 1.3 | +85% |
| Texas State | WR Receptions | 5223rd | 4.5142nd | 3.4 | +47% |
| Cincinnati | TE Receptions | 4222nd | 4.6160th | 2.4 | +67% |
| West Virginia | WR Rec Yards | 66.3219th | 86.6161st | 44.5 | +49% |
| Wake Forest | WR Receptions | 4.9222nd | 4.5142nd | 3.4 | +44% |
 Air Force | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.9226th | 3.1157th | 2.1 | +38% |
 Buffalo | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.9226th | 3.3160th | 2.1 | +38% |
 Marshall | DL Tackles + Assists | 2.9226th | 3.2159th | 2.1 | +38% |
Getting softer
The last 5 games are at least 12% above the team's season number, and now in the softer part of the league. Teams with at least 8 games only.
| Air Force | DB Tackles + Assists | 3.8218th | 5.4158th | +42% |
 Georgia Southern | TE Rec Yards | 31.4181st | 52.5159th | +67% |
| West Virginia | WR Rec Yards | 66.3219th | 86.6161st | +31% |
 Pittsburgh | TE Receptions | 3.1202nd | 4.4158th | +42% |
 Florida | K Kicking Points | 6.3184th | 9156th | +43% |
 Sacramento State | K Kicking Points | 4.390th | 7141st | +63% |
 Iowa | WR Rec Yards | 49.7153rd | 66.2154th | +33% |
 North Carolina State | WR Receptions | 4.2193rd | 5.3160th | +26% |
 New Mexico | TE Rec Yards | 33.8192nd | 49.3156th | +46% |
 California | QB Pass TDs | 1.7138th | 2.6150th | +53% |
| Mississippi State | QB Pass TDs | 2.1182nd | 3155th | +43% |
 Utah | RB Rec Yards | 19.4216th | 27.1161st | +40% |
Getting tougher
The last 5 games are at least 12% below the team's season number, and now in the tougher part of the league. A season average can hide this.
| Florida | DB Tackles + Assists | 2.139th | 0.41st | -81% |
 Purdue | LB Tackles + Assists | 4.6195th | 2.313th | -50% |
| Florida | LB Tackles + Assists | 3.595th | 1.52nd | -57% |
 Arizona | DB Tackles + Assists | 2.688th | 1.45th | -46% |
 Stanford | TE Rec Yards | 24.7134th | 8.47th | -66% |
 Utah State | K Kicking Points | 5.9174th | 3.334th | -44% |
 Hawaii | TE Rec Yards | 28.7165th | 1320th | -55% |
 Toledo | K Kicking Points | 6.1180th | 3.643rd | -41% |
 Appalachian State | LB Tackles + Assists | 4.1161st | 2.520th | -39% |
| Purdue | DB Tackles + Assists | 2.573rd | 1.45th | -44% |
| Miami Ohio | QB Pass TDs | 1.9145th | 136th | -47% |
 Temple | QB Pass TDs | 1.390th | 0.46th | -69% |
Most exposed defenses
How many of the main position and stat pairs put this team in the league's softest 10%. A team on this list gives up production across several roles, not one.
| West Virginia | 6 | QB Pass Yards: 307.8 (222nd), WR Rec Yards: 66.3 (219th) |
| Wake Forest | 5 | RB Receptions: 2.5 (229th), WR Receptions: 4.9 (222nd) |
| Cincinnati | 4 | TE Rec Yards: 48.1 (222nd), TE Receptions: 4 (222nd) |
| Texas State | 4 | QB Pass Completions: 25 (228th), WR Receptions: 5 (223rd) |
| Boise State | 3 | TE Rec Yards: 51.3 (225th), DB Tackles + Assists: 4.4 (232nd) |
| Texas Tech | 3 | QB Pass Completions: 25.3 (230th), RB Receptions: 2.4 (227th) |
| North Carolina | 3 | RB Receptions: 2.4 (227th), RB Rec Yards: 18.3 (213th) |
| Mississippi State | 3 | RB Rec Yards: 21 (221st), RB Receptions: 2 (214th) |
Using soft spots on a prop
Match the spot to tonight's games
The top row is Bowling Green against running backs on rushing yards. It only matters if Bowling Green is playing and the opposing running back has a line on that stat.
Read the gap
Bowling Green allows 93.8 per game, 89% above the league's 49.6, and 226th of 235.
Check it is still true
Over the last 5 games the number is 67.7, 127th in the league. If it has dropped a lot, the defense may have changed.
Then check the player
Open the player in the app: how they have done against today's exact line, who is out, and which book has the best price.
How this is counted
We check the main prop stats at each position for every team with at least 4 games: 1,932 team, position and stat pairs. A soft spot is in the last 25% of the league on the season with a last 5 still above average, sorted by distance from the league average for that pair in standard deviations. Getting softer or tougher needs 8+ games, a gap of at least 12% between the last 5 and the season, and a last 5 rank on the matching end of the league. Computed each morning from every box score of the season, preseason excluded, and refreshed here by 8:40 AM ET.
Soft spots FAQ
What is the softest College Football matchup right now?
Bowling Green allows 93.8 rushing yards per game to running backs (226th of 235, league average 49.6). That is 89% above average. These are 2026 numbers through about 8 games per team. Only teams with at least 4 games are listed.
Which College Football defense is getting worse?
Air Force has the biggest jump against defensive backs on tackles + assists: 5.4 per game over the last 5, against 3.8 on the season.
Which College Football defense is getting better?
Florida has the biggest drop against defensive backs on tackles + assists: 0.4 per game over the last 5, against 2.1 on the season.
Which College Football defense is the most exposed overall?
West Virginia: 6 of the main position and stat pairs land in the league's softest 10%.
How is a soft spot chosen?
A team must be in the last 25% of the league on that exact position and stat, and its last 5 games must still be above average. The list sorts by how far the number sits from the league average for that pair, in standard deviations, so a stat with small numbers cannot crowd out the rest. It is research, not a promise of how a game goes.
What is the best tool for researching College Football picks?
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